The larger corrections usually send plenty of signals if you know where the look and have the time to watch. This was definitely one of those times.
If you reread my 5 October blog post, you will find the following quote:
“the setup looks similar to previous deeper corrections”
I don’t always pass on these signals in my free blog…
Since I know what many of you are thinking you also need to know that I’ve made very few correction calls recently (14% – August and December 2015, 10% – February 2018 and this time). No others calls, other than the fact that this is one of the most over-valued markets in history according to reliable measures and not wall street.
In the same post I quoted my 2 October e-mail alert to members that something was up. I had some comments on my 5 October post asking what I was talking about since the markets was only down 30 points at the time. I guess they missed the quote above.
In my follow-up post on 21 October, the market was bouncing around the 200-day moving average, so I discussed the possibilities but added:
“odds in favor of another pullback of unknown size next week”
I will admit that once a correction takes hold, it is difficult to know where the bottom will be, so I’ve pointed out that my lower trend line was the last area of support for the market. Let’s hope it holds because that is where the market bounced.
So what’s next? I will save that for my members who are wondering why they signed up if I am giving all the details away in my free blog. But you are more than welcome to follow me here until you figure out that $85 per year is a lot cheaper than what this market can cost in a very short period of time.
Invest safe, invest smart and please don’t take too long to join.
I’m on your side,
Michael H. Bond
5 October blog post TSP Funds Sink on Strong Economy
21 October blog post TSP Charts Quicklook