Recent Posts

  • The Best TSP Allocation for 2019

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    I’ve updated my Best TSP Allocation for the new year.  The discussion on the best TSP funds has not changed significantly this year other than discussing the new TSP I fund index.  What has changed is our view of where… Read More ›

  • TSP Smart: Doug Noland’s Full Capitulation

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    The fact that Fed President chose the Fed’s 1998 response to talk about is chilling. And why mention Autumn of 2020 as the length of time to keep “inflation” running high… what inflation is he talking about? Is he saying “Mr. President, we will keep the stock market bubble inflating until the election”? Absolutely. Why? So the Fed can stay “independent”.

  • TSP Charts: Quick look

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    After creating $17 trillion dollars and pumping most of it into the financial markets, the central banks collectively tried to pull back in early 2018. It did not work out so well as evidence in the chart below. So the… Read More ›

  • Doug Noland: The Perils of Stop and Go

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    As we are witnessing again in early-2019, when “risk on” is inciting leveraged speculation markets create their own self-reinforcing liquidity. It is when “risk off” de-risking/deleveraging takes hold that illiquidity quickly reemerges as a serious issue. And I would argue that it is the inescapable predicament of speculative Bubbles that they create ever-increasing vulnerability to downside reversals, illiquidity, dislocation and panic. 

  • TSP & Faux Capitalism

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    You had better start trying to understand what is going on because you are about to live with the fallout in one way or another. It will not only affect your TSP investments, it will affect the future of our country. It is hard to get people to listen at the top especially when the naysayers have been “wrong” for so long and reality is so illusive.

  • TSP: the Bitcoin effect

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    No one will notice.  No one will consider this effect on the markets at large. It does not fit their models. So this month the exchanges are starting to wind down Futures trading of Bitcoin due to lack of trading… Read More ›

  • Doug Noland: Everything Rally

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    While risk market participants fixate on capturing unbridled short-terms speculative returns, the safe havens see the inevitability of market dislocation, bursting Bubbles and ever more central bank monetary stimulus.

  • TSP: I’m Sure It’s Nothing

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    Think of these charts as cliff notes from around the web on the markets, economy and monetary policy. This is merely a fun exercise in what we find every month on the web during our meta research. I add other… Read More ›

  • Doug Noland: Doing Harm with Uber-Dovish

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    T his week’s FOMC meeting will be debated for years – perhaps even decades. The Fed essentially pre-committed to no rate hike in 2019. The committee downgraded both its growth and inflation forecasts. Having all at once turned of little… Read More ›

  • Doug Noland’s Uncharted Territory

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    The world is in completely uncharted territory. What unfolded was a complete breakdown in discipline – in central banking, in Washington borrowing and spending, and throughout highly speculative markets. And I do believe the new Fed Chairman had hopes of normalizing Fed policymaking, letting the markets begin stand on their own, and commencing the long-delayed process of system normalization. Pressure – markets and otherwise – became too much to bear. Fed U-Turn, January 4, 2019 – immediately transmitted globally.