Doug Noland: Rejoicing Central Banker Capitulation

A crisis-period experiment in QE came with profound repercussions. The Fed’s 2011 “exit strategy” was supplanted the following year by Draghi’s “whatever it takes” – and there’s been no turning back. The prospect of Whatever and Whenever It Takes QE as essential to the global central banker toolkit has Changed Everything.

Recent Posts

  • The Best TSP Allocation for 2019

    I’ve updated my Best TSP Allocation for the new year.  The discussion on the best TSP funds has not changed significantly this year other than discussing the new TSP I fund index.  What has changed is our view of where… Read More ›

  • TSP Funds: Time to Get Defensive

    It is hard to get people to listen when the SP500 is near an all-time high and the US economy appears strong, so I wrote “Why I Am Defensive and You Should Be Too”. Take a look please.

  • Rant: Privacy & Email

    For 15 months I have been hitting the “I’ll Do This Later” button on Yahoo’s Privacy Policy every time I open my Yahoo email accounts.

  • TSP Charts: Crazy Time

    So tell us Fed Chairman, with the financial markets on the verge of full melt-up based on the Fed’s money printing past and not the real economy, what are you going to do?

  • Doug Noland: The Market’s Bet

    Commentary from Doug Noland’s Q1 2019 Z.1 “Flow of Funds” The market now prices in a 21% probability of a rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting, with an 86% probability for a cut by the July 31st meeting. I… Read More ›

  • Doug Noland: Hoard of Jumbo Bazookas

    The Fed has not only abandoned “normalization,” it has deserted its primary responsibility for safeguarding financial stability.

  • TSP charts: 7 June

    If bad economic news sending the stock market soaring does NOT make sense to you, then you are trying to think rationally. It makes perfect sense when you consider how distorted our monetary and fiscal policies are.

  • TSP F fund in 2019

    I’ve received some good questions about the TSP F fund from members. I decided to provide a current overview of the fund and what to expect.

  • Doug Noland: So Much for the Trump Put

    This is where the analysis turns absolutely fascinating – and becomes as important as it is chilling. The PBOC is at increasing risk of confronting the same predicament that other emerging central banks faced when their Bubbles succumbed: in the event of a mounting crisis of confidence in the stability of the financial system and the local currency, large central bank injections work to fan market fears while generating additional liquidity available to flow out of the system. “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”

  • Doug Noland: The Ignore Them, Then Panic Dynamic

    Healthy markets would adjust and correct to reflect heightened uncertainties and deteriorating prospects. Speculative markets instead promote excess and the ongoing accumulation of imbalances, maladjustment and impairment. There’s no operable release valve. Pressure builds and builds – risks accumulate in all the wrong places – Then Panic.