Inquiring minds are asking why the Fed is considering an interest rate cut when the SP500 is sitting at an all-time high, unemployment is near an historical low, wage growth is solid and of course we keep hearing we are in “the greatest economy ever”.
I’ve updated my Best TSP Allocation for the new year. The discussion on the best TSP funds has not changed significantly this year other than discussing the new TSP I fund index. What has changed is our view of where… Read More ›
There is increasing evidence of market dislocation and associated Monetary Disorder… Where’s all this “money” coming from?
At this stage, however, global bonds have adopted an altogether different focus: China’s financial and economic structures are untenable. Sustaining rapid Credit growth is increasingly fraught with peril. With market players now questioning Beijing’s implicit guarantee for smaller and mid-sized banks and financial institutions, financial conditions are in the process of tightening at the financial system’s “periphery.” And tightened Credit conditions have begun to reverberate in the real economy.
Small caps have not bought into this last rally. Nor have some other financial sectors. At least the trade war is progressing nicely…
A crisis-period experiment in QE came with profound repercussions. The Fed’s 2011 “exit strategy” was supplanted the following year by Draghi’s “whatever it takes” – and there’s been no turning back. The prospect of Whatever and Whenever It Takes QE as essential to the global central banker toolkit has Changed Everything.
It is hard to get people to listen when the SP500 is near an all-time high and the US economy appears strong, so I wrote “Why I Am Defensive and You Should Be Too”. Take a look please.
For 15 months I have been hitting the “I’ll Do This Later” button on Yahoo’s Privacy Policy every time I open my Yahoo email accounts.
So tell us Fed Chairman, with the financial markets on the verge of full melt-up based on the Fed’s money printing past and not the real economy, what are you going to do?
Commentary from Doug Noland’s Q1 2019 Z.1 “Flow of Funds” The market now prices in a 21% probability of a rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting, with an 86% probability for a cut by the July 31st meeting. I… Read More ›
The Fed has not only abandoned “normalization,” it has deserted its primary responsibility for safeguarding financial stability.