Recent Posts

  • The Best TSP Allocation for 2019

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    I’ve updated my Best TSP Allocation for the new year.  The discussion on the best TSP funds has not changed significantly this year other than discussing the new TSP I fund index.  What has changed is our view of where… Read More ›

  • TSP Charts: Crazy Time

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    So tell us Fed Chairman, with the financial markets on the verge of full melt-up based on the Fed’s money printing past and not the real economy, what are you going to do?

  • Doug Noland: The Market’s Bet

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    Commentary from Doug Noland’s Q1 2019 Z.1 “Flow of Funds” The market now prices in a 21% probability of a rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting, with an 86% probability for a cut by the July 31st meeting. I… Read More ›

  • Doug Noland: Hoard of Jumbo Bazookas

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    The Fed has not only abandoned “normalization,” it has deserted its primary responsibility for safeguarding financial stability.

  • TSP charts: 7 June

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    If bad economic news sending the stock market soaring does NOT make sense to you, then you are trying to think rationally. It makes perfect sense when you consider how distorted our monetary and fiscal policies are.

  • TSP F fund in 2019

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    I’ve received some good questions about the TSP F fund from members. I decided to provide a current overview of the fund and what to expect.

  • Doug Noland: So Much for the Trump Put

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    This is where the analysis turns absolutely fascinating – and becomes as important as it is chilling. The PBOC is at increasing risk of confronting the same predicament that other emerging central banks faced when their Bubbles succumbed: in the event of a mounting crisis of confidence in the stability of the financial system and the local currency, large central bank injections work to fan market fears while generating additional liquidity available to flow out of the system. “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”

  • Doug Noland: The Ignore Them, Then Panic Dynamic

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    Healthy markets would adjust and correct to reflect heightened uncertainties and deteriorating prospects. Speculative markets instead promote excess and the ongoing accumulation of imbalances, maladjustment and impairment. There’s no operable release valve. Pressure builds and builds – risks accumulate in all the wrong places – Then Panic.

  • TSP Charts: Special Report

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    We look into key market factors to determine whether we will see 1) another continuation of the bull market, 2) a sideways pattern or 3) the start of a bear market. It’s becoming clear.

  • Doug Noland: True Start to U.S. vs. China Trade War

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    At this point, markets have become quite enamored with the notion of Quadruple Puts – the Fed, Trump, Xi/Beijing and corporate buybacks. When historians look back at this period, they will surely be baffled by the markets’ capacity for disregarding major risks and negative developments. We’re at the stage of a historic – and especially protracted – cycle where it has repeatedly paid to ignore risk. Over time, the successful risk ignorers and dip buyers have ascended to the top. Risk-takers systematically rewarded; the cautious banished.