Author Archives
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Doug Noland: The Reality of Financial Dominance
Does this ensure accelerating general price inflation? Not necessarily. There remains the possibility for the bursting Bubble scenario with collapsing asset prices, de-leveraging, illiquidity and resulting deflationary pressures. But especially after what was experienced in 2020, we must assume global central banks would respond in concert with multi-Trillions of additional monetary inflation.
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Doug Noland: Issues 2021
For years now, my beginning of the year “Issues” pieces have featured a key Credit Bubble maxim: “The Bubble either further inflates or bursts.” While easier to dismiss than ever, this dynamic has never been as germane. The Fed-induced Bubble is raging out of control. Monetary Disorder is acute and highly destabilizing. Sustainability must be questioned.
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Doug Noland: 2020 Year in Review
The issue of “sound money” is viewed as hopelessly archaic, a reality that my 20 plus years of CBBs has failed to alter. The challenge to warning of the myriad pernicious dangers associated with Monetary Inflation is made no easier by markets creating Trillions of added perceived wealth
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Doug Noland: $10 Trillion In Nine Months
Whether it’s the U.S., China or elsewhere, Bubbles reach a point where risk becomes impossible to control.
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Doug Noland: Monetary Disorder In Extremis
The U.S. Bubble Economy structure has evolved into a voracious Credit glutton. There’s a strong case for significant additional fiscal stimulus. The case for boosting monetary stimulus is not compelling. Financial conditions have remained ultra-loose. Credit stays readily available for even the riskiest corporate borrowers, as bond issuance surges to new heights. While formidable, the remarkable speculative Bubble throughout corporate Credit is dwarfed by what has regressed to a raging stock market mania.
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Doug Noland: Pondering the New Treasury Secretary
…there’s a salient aspect of Yellen’s career that should not be overlooked: Her failure as Fed chair…
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Doug Noland: Scorched Earth
Covid bestowed end-of-cycle excess a hardy additional lease on life.
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Doug Noland: Well, That’s Some Weird… Stuff
At this point, markets are scary dysfunctional. Melt-ups lay the groundwork for breakdowns. And the longer markets disregard reality, the more destabilizing the eventual reckoning. There’s a major economic crisis shoe to drop when market Bubbles succumb.
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Doug Noland: Critical Juncture
But if an adverse outcome didn’t materialize, the unwind of hedges could spur markets higher while stoking speculative excess.
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Doug Noland: Very Dangerous
And don’t get me going on the Federal Reserve’s buying Apple’s corporate bonds when credit card rates are 17%.