Author Archives

  • Doug Noland: Global Lender of Last Resort

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    It is a central tenet of Bubble Analysis that “things get crazy at the end of cycles.”

  • The Federal Reserve: “It’s Not Our Fault”

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    …the safe havens signal a major crisis is unavoidable. This is not your granddad’s Economic Structure. And to hear the Federal Reserve still focused on below target inflation is a farce.

  • Doug Noland: Crossing Red Lines

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    I seriously doubt China’s banking system inflates from $8 TN to $43 TN during this cycle without Trillions of “Bubble Dollars” flooding the world and its resulting reserves horde. U.S. crisis and QE1 provided China a blank check for a massive $600 billion 2009 stimulus plan. And Chinese Credit – along with investment, manufacturing, apartment Bubble, economic boom, technological advancement, military buildup, global influence peddling, and ambitions for superpower status – never looked back.

  • Doug Noland: Drone Money

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    It was obvious the Fed had really blown it. That this academic, and recently appointed Fed governor, referred to the “bubble poppers” from the late-twenties and their role in fomenting the Great Depression made it difficult not to be disdainful. I underestimated both the man and the world’s gullibility.

  • Doug Noland: Utmost Crazy (Stock Market Bubble)

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    ‘There’s no way I can lose,’ said the 36-year-old, who works at a technology startup… ‘Right now, I’m feeling invincible.’

    It is a central tenet of Credit Bubble Analysis that things turn “Crazy” near the end of cycles. And with the thesis that we’re in the concluding (“Terminal”) phase of a multi-decade, super-cycle global Bubble, there’s been every reason to foresee Utmost Craziness.

  • Doug Noland: More W than V

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    Global markets remain haunted by the specter of an unwind of unprecedented speculative leverage. When markets break to the downside, there is clear potential for another episode of derivative-related selling that would panic buyers.

  • Doug Noland: The Fed is Trapped

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    The Chairman’s rambling (non-answer) reply could be summarized in four words: “The Fed is trapped.” It’s trapped by Bubble Dynamics – a historic Bubble that either inflates or collapses. What the Fed labels as “markets functioning” is at this point a “functioning” speculative Bubble.

  • Doug Noland: “Extraordinary Upside Global Market Dislocation”

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    We’re in the throes of an extraordinary upside global market dislocation. I do not recall such a ferocious globalized short squeeze – stocks, corporate Credit, currencies and EM sovereign debt. We can only imagine the behind the scenes fracas in derivatives trading.

  • Doug Noland: The Scourge of “Whatever it Takes” Monetary Mismanagement

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    The global Bubble has been pierced, though unprecedented monetary inflation only exacerbates the epic divergence between inflating asset prices and deflating economic prospects. As I’ve written over the years – and as demonstrated rather conspicuously in March: contemporary finance seems to operate miraculously – so long as it’s inflating. It just doesn’t work in reverse. These days it’s even more frightening to contemplate how this all ends. The Scourge of “Whatever it Takes” Monetary Mismanagement.

  • Doug Noland: Global Bubbles are Deflating

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    Bubbles, at their core, are fueled by Credit – or “Credit inflation.” Asset inflation and speculative asset price Bubbles are a common upshot. At their core, Bubbles are mechanisms of wealth redistribution and destruction.