Author Archives

  • Doug Noland: Global Lender of Last Resort

    It is a central tenet of Bubble Analysis that “things get crazy at the end of cycles.”

  • The Federal Reserve: “It’s Not Our Fault”

    …the safe havens signal a major crisis is unavoidable. This is not your granddad’s Economic Structure. And to hear the Federal Reserve still focused on below target inflation is a farce.

  • Doug Noland: Crossing Red Lines

    I seriously doubt China’s banking system inflates from $8 TN to $43 TN during this cycle without Trillions of “Bubble Dollars” flooding the world and its resulting reserves horde. U.S. crisis and QE1 provided China a blank check for a massive $600 billion 2009 stimulus plan. And Chinese Credit – along with investment, manufacturing, apartment Bubble, economic boom, technological advancement, military buildup, global influence peddling, and ambitions for superpower status – never looked back.

  • Doug Noland: Drone Money

    It was obvious the Fed had really blown it. That this academic, and recently appointed Fed governor, referred to the “bubble poppers” from the late-twenties and their role in fomenting the Great Depression made it difficult not to be disdainful. I underestimated both the man and the world’s gullibility.

  • Doug Noland: Utmost Crazy (Stock Market Bubble)

    ‘There’s no way I can lose,’ said the 36-year-old, who works at a technology startup… ‘Right now, I’m feeling invincible.’

    It is a central tenet of Credit Bubble Analysis that things turn “Crazy” near the end of cycles. And with the thesis that we’re in the concluding (“Terminal”) phase of a multi-decade, super-cycle global Bubble, there’s been every reason to foresee Utmost Craziness.

  • Doug Noland: More W than V

    Global markets remain haunted by the specter of an unwind of unprecedented speculative leverage. When markets break to the downside, there is clear potential for another episode of derivative-related selling that would panic buyers.

  • Doug Noland: The Fed is Trapped

    The Chairman’s rambling (non-answer) reply could be summarized in four words: “The Fed is trapped.” It’s trapped by Bubble Dynamics – a historic Bubble that either inflates or collapses. What the Fed labels as “markets functioning” is at this point a “functioning” speculative Bubble.

  • Doug Noland: “Extraordinary Upside Global Market Dislocation”

    We’re in the throes of an extraordinary upside global market dislocation. I do not recall such a ferocious globalized short squeeze – stocks, corporate Credit, currencies and EM sovereign debt. We can only imagine the behind the scenes fracas in derivatives trading.

  • Doug Noland: The Scourge of “Whatever it Takes” Monetary Mismanagement

    The global Bubble has been pierced, though unprecedented monetary inflation only exacerbates the epic divergence between inflating asset prices and deflating economic prospects. As I’ve written over the years – and as demonstrated rather conspicuously in March: contemporary finance seems to operate miraculously – so long as it’s inflating. It just doesn’t work in reverse. These days it’s even more frightening to contemplate how this all ends. The Scourge of “Whatever it Takes” Monetary Mismanagement.

  • Doug Noland: Global Bubbles are Deflating

    Bubbles, at their core, are fueled by Credit – or “Credit inflation.” Asset inflation and speculative asset price Bubbles are a common upshot. At their core, Bubbles are mechanisms of wealth redistribution and destruction.