Author Archives
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TSP Smart: The Big Pivot
While markets are these days fixated on an imminent Fed dovish pivot, out further on the horizon looms a crisis of confidence in government finance.
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Fire
We’re officially one week into what will likely evolve into a major banking and financial crisis. Understandably, there are comparisons to the Lehman collapse. Such analysis doesn’t seem as lunatic fringe after this week’s upheaval in Europe.
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Silicon Valley Bust
A collapsing Bubble fixing Beijing’s sights on Taiwan. It’s a scenario I’ve feared for years. I just never imagined China and Russia as “partners without limits” in a fragmenting world of economic and military alliances.
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The Calm Before the Storm
Doug writes: So, why would risk premiums and indicators remain sanguine in the face of a yield spike and hawkish reassessment of Fed rate policy? Phrased differently, what is holding back “risk off” dynamics? A Friday evening Bloomberg headline: “Blaring… Read More ›
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Perils of Unsound Money
We’re now three decades into history’s greatest Credit Bubble, which, not by accident, coincided with radical monetary management experimentation.
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Most Disappointing Recession Ever
I believe the world is transitioning to a new cycle. Expectations that inflation conveniently returns to previous cycle dynamics is wishful thinking. Hopes that central bankers can quickly conclude tightening cycles without the need to inflict pain are unrealistic.
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Monetary Inflation Run Amok
Markets Friday didn’t quite know how to react to the stunning news. Masayoshi Amamiya, governor Kuroda’s right-hand man and heir apparent, is said to have turned down the job. Can you blame him?
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Powell is No Volcker
Powell Wednesday needed to push back firmly against speculative markets, against the legacies of Greenspan and Bernanke. After printing $5 TN, he should have demonstrated a modicum of policy symmetry by at least leaning against the “echo Bubble.” It was astonishing to see Powell instead throw fuel on a major short squeeze and dangerous market instability.
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Fighting Inflation Complacency
If the Fed and global central bankers relax with inflation in the five to six percent range, it will likely spike back toward double-digits during the next inflationary shock. This is no time for Inflation Complacency.
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Doug Noland: Market Messaging
Bull market expectations are deeply ingrained. The Crowd will buy the dips and commit more financial resources to the market all the way down – until the shock.