Author Archives

  • Doug Noland: Day Nine [since WWIII went hot]

    In simple terms, it doesn’t work in reverse. The current financial structure is viable only so long as the Bubble is inflating – only while credit, leverage and speculative flows are expanding. In the event of serious de-risking and deleveraging, markets are prone to illiquidity, dislocation and panic.

  • Doug Noland: Honor

    And if I were selling subscriptions or using an email list, this is where the cancellations come. Here it goes: I guess I’m a traditionalist. As Americans, during a crisis we would rally around the President. This is not the time – the era – to crave – to strive – for his failure. There’s no Honor in that. Most regrettably, we today have our own domestic “iron curtain” and “cold war” mentality. It will not serve us well.

  • TSP Smart: Principles of Financial Bubbles & Today

    I’m deeply concerned, and part of my anxiety comes from knowing people haven’t been paying attention. A Russian invasion of Ukraine has potential to be a highly destabilizing catalyst, slamming fragile global markets, exacerbating inflationary pressures, accelerating financial asset Bubble deflation…

  • Doug Noland: Lost Control

    Consumer price inflation continued to run hot in January. CPI increased a stronger-than-expected 0.6% during the month, boosting y-o-y inflation to a 40-year high 7.5%. Hyperbole is unnecessary. Inflation is out of Control.

  • Doug Noland: A Changing World

    “The world’s top central banks are about to embark on ‘the largest quantitative tightening in history’, analysts at Morgan Stanley said…, estimating that $2.2 trillion worth of support would disappear over the next 12 months.

  • Doug Noland: The High-Wire Act Has Commenced

    No one can seriously believe the ‘Fed Put’ has met its maker. It’s this murky new strike price that will create restless nights. What will it take in the markets to force another big pivot from the Fed Chair?

  • Doug Noland: Market Structure in the Crosshairs

    Rather than “Ring a Dot-Com Bust Alarm Bell,” it was the systemic risk bells that began chiming this week.

  • Doug Noland: “You have to shock the markets”

    Henry Kaufman was interviewed this week for an article by Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker: “I don’t think this Federal Reserve and this leadership has the stamina to act decisively. They’ll act incrementally. In order to turn the market around to a more non-inflationary attitude, you have to shock the market. You can’t raise interest rates bit-by-bit.”

  • TSP Smart: Truth Speaks

    If you want to understand 2022 before it happens and everyone starts pointing fingers, start here with Doug Noland’s Issues 2022.

  • Doug Noland: 2021 Ran Wild

    Add Trillions of system liquidity after home price inflation has attained momentum – with mortgage rates held down to a fraction of housing inflation rates – and the Fed confirms lessons from the “Great Financial Crisis” went unlearned. Housing Bubble excess running wild…