Author Archives

  • Doug Noland: Fed Guessing

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    hear no, speak no, say no

    Our central bank has its heels firmly dug in. Monetary policy will remain ultra-loose, while their communications strategy at this point is little more than rationalization and justification. I can only assume they are fearful of the consequences of puncturing Bubbles. It’s been only 13 months since a near financial meltdown.

  • Doug Noland: Peak Monetary Stimulus

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    Over the years, I’ve relied upon a “Core vs. Periphery” model of market instability as a key facet of my analytical framework. Instability and financial crises typically emerge at the “periphery” – at the fringe where the structurally weakest and most vulnerable to risk aversion and tightening financial conditions – reside.

  • TSP Investing: The Last Dance

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    Probably the most surprising part of credit-driven market tops is how long they take to play out. The early crash, the central bank pushes back, the highly-leveraged speculative melt-up, then the initial blow ups (Archegos) that force banks to pull back.

  • Doug Noland: When Ponzi Finance Goes Boom

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    Minsky witnessed a lot, but he surely never imagined an environment of zero rates and endless Trillions of Fed monetization, and how such a backdrop – the perpetual “bonanza” – would extend the “deviation amplifying” Ponzi phase.

  • Doug Noland: Double Trouble

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    After such a historic year of monetary inflation, efforts to pull back will expose myriad fragilities. Unparalleled debt and speculative leverage in a backdrop of rising inflation risk and more cautious central bankers create a high-risk backdrop. Toss in an epic speculative mania in equities, derivatives trading, cryptocurrencies and the like, and it’s difficult to envisage an environment fraught with greater risk. All eyes on the global leveraged speculating community.

  • Doug Noland: Powell on Inflation

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    Noland comment: I abhor historical revisionism. “Rates were very low. They were at zero for seven years… During that we didn’t see… excess buildup of debt. We didn’t see asset prices forming to bubbles… We didn’t see a housing bubble.”

  • Doug Noland: Fact versus Opinion

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    194% in 1990
    358% marked 2000 mkt top
    387% marked 2007 mkt top
    556% today

  • Doug Noland: Market Accident Ahead

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    In sum, the volatility experienced across markets over the past couple weeks indicates growing risk of a financial accident.

  • Doug Noland: Regime Change

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    Unsound money, asset bubbles, inequality, and slow economic growth all are symptoms of the same bad policies that funneled money to the financial markets and not the real economy until this year.

  • Doug Noland: Catastrophic Failures

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    “‘We have come dangerously close to the collapse of the entire system and the public seems to be completely unaware of that, including Congress and the regulators,’ Peterffy said…”