Author Archives
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Smart Bird: Lookout, China’s Popping Their Bubbles
Why have Treasury and global bond yields been collapsing in the face of surging inflation? The faltering Chinese Bubble. The Faltering Chinese Bubble! Fragile global Bubbles!!! “Hey Doug, you’re on mute.”
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TSP Smart: Monetary Cocaine
We’ve witnessed since March 2020 a QE program that, rather than accommodating deleveraging, actually spurred further speculative leverage.
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Smart Bird: Burning Down the House
The Fed basically risked everything. They thought the changing world meant no more worries of surging inflation and actual tightening measures. Keeping the markets elevated became their unstated priority. They’re now on the wrong side of a losing bet, a predicament that became increasingly clear this week with Chair Powell’s beltway testimony. The Fed, understandably, is Under Fire for surging inflation.
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Smart Bird: Why Markets Bounced Friday
It was not the Federal Reserve flinching this time, it was China’s central bank that caused the bounce on Friday.
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TSP Smart: The Fed Bailed out Buddies
The first 3 paragraphs of Doug’s article tell it all.
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Doug Noland: A Fed focused on Markets and not Banks and not Talking About It
There is a monumental flaw in contemporary central banking doctrine, one not debated and seemingly not even recognized: it is perilous for central banks to manipulate the securities markets as their chief mechanism for managing financial conditions.
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Doug Noland: Heels Dislodged
The bottom line: global Bubbles are fragile and increasingly vulnerable. In particular, China is a Credit accident in the making. And Fed policy certainty has been the glue holding things together – keeping the mania raging, keeping the leveraged players playing, keeping all the options and derivatives speculators betting on the long side, and keeping the weak dollar supportive of levered “carry trades” the world over.
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TSP Smart: The US FUBAR Balance Sheet Update
I am going to pull the salient data out and print it up front… So my more simple conclusion is that our financial system is FUBAR.
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Doug Noland: [Labor] Turned Tight
In other words, the labor market is tight today. Are we really worried about filling all the below-living-wage burger-flipping unfilled jobs? For reference, 5 million jobs paying $20K a year ($10/hr) comes to $100 Billion in wages a year – the Fed is printing $120 billion per month to monetize the stock market.
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Doug Noland: History Screams
Michael Bond comment: Just read it. Term “coup de whiskey” means in 1927 with over heating markets the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates instead of raising them. The 1929 stock market bubble top took 30 years to be topped after… Read More ›