Author Archives

  • Doug Noland: Un-Anchored

    The financial sphere is not driven by inflation, but “inflation expectations”. The Fed will say whatever it takes to attempt to manage expectations, but the market may not listen. Higher inflation pushes interest rates higher, higher interest rates will bring down stocks… and bubbles do not work in reverse. This is the risk of 2021.

  • Doug Noland: Generational Turning Point?

    Everyone is prepared for unchecked monetary and fiscal stimulus as far as the eye can see. But is existing market structure sustainable in a backdrop of unrelenting non-productive debt growth, rising inflation, waning central bank flexibility and shifting political priorities?

  • Doug Noland: Fed Guessing

    hear no, speak no, say no

    Our central bank has its heels firmly dug in. Monetary policy will remain ultra-loose, while their communications strategy at this point is little more than rationalization and justification. I can only assume they are fearful of the consequences of puncturing Bubbles. It’s been only 13 months since a near financial meltdown.

  • Doug Noland: Peak Monetary Stimulus

    Over the years, I’ve relied upon a “Core vs. Periphery” model of market instability as a key facet of my analytical framework. Instability and financial crises typically emerge at the “periphery” – at the fringe where the structurally weakest and most vulnerable to risk aversion and tightening financial conditions – reside.

  • TSP Investing: The Last Dance

    Probably the most surprising part of credit-driven market tops is how long they take to play out. The early crash, the central bank pushes back, the highly-leveraged speculative melt-up, then the initial blow ups (Archegos) that force banks to pull back.

  • Doug Noland: When Ponzi Finance Goes Boom

    Minsky witnessed a lot, but he surely never imagined an environment of zero rates and endless Trillions of Fed monetization, and how such a backdrop – the perpetual “bonanza” – would extend the “deviation amplifying” Ponzi phase.

  • Doug Noland: Double Trouble

    After such a historic year of monetary inflation, efforts to pull back will expose myriad fragilities. Unparalleled debt and speculative leverage in a backdrop of rising inflation risk and more cautious central bankers create a high-risk backdrop. Toss in an epic speculative mania in equities, derivatives trading, cryptocurrencies and the like, and it’s difficult to envisage an environment fraught with greater risk. All eyes on the global leveraged speculating community.

  • Doug Noland: Powell on Inflation

    Noland comment: I abhor historical revisionism. “Rates were very low. They were at zero for seven years… During that we didn’t see… excess buildup of debt. We didn’t see asset prices forming to bubbles… We didn’t see a housing bubble.”

  • Doug Noland: Fact versus Opinion

    194% in 1990
    358% marked 2000 mkt top
    387% marked 2007 mkt top
    556% today

  • Doug Noland: Market Accident Ahead

    In sum, the volatility experienced across markets over the past couple weeks indicates growing risk of a financial accident.