Author Archives
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Doug Noland: China Watch
First time all four developed countries have been negative year-over-year since last two global recessions.
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Doug Noland: What the Heck is Happening in the Cayman Islands?
It was no coincidence that U.S. “repo” market tumult followed on the heels of an abrupt reversal in global bond yields. I appreciate how the enormous global buildup in leveraged speculation works miraculously so long as bond yields are declining (bond prices rising). If only bond yields could fall forever – even as debt and deficits expand uncontrollably. It’s not clear to me how the global system doesn’t turn increasingly unstable, which I believe explains why the ECB and now the Fed have resorted again to QE.
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Doug Noland: Resurrecting M2
This was the second strongest (22-week) monetary expansion in U.S. history, trailing only 2011’s “QE2” period…
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TSP Funds and Autumn Fires
This year we are seeing more underlying turmoil in the global financial markets. The Fed and media talking heads are telling us the markets need more financial reserves ignoring the trillions that are supposedly in them already. No, I think Doug Noland has it right – “The issue is not a shortage of reserves but a gross excess of speculative leverage.”
Tread careful this Fall. Sometimes those Autumn fires get out of control.
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Doug Noland: Dudley Sticks His Neck Out
The notion that the Federal Reserve would not respond to declining stock prices – under any circumstance – has become heresy. Where was the outrage when Bill Dudley (while at Goldman Sachs) and others specifically called for the Fed to adopt policies to spur mortgage Credit expansion for the purpose of systemic reflation after the collapse of the “tech” Bubble?
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TSP Funds: War On, Risk Off
And so much for “good friend.” I’ll assume affixing the “enemy” label to Xi Jinping denotes serious trade war escalation. The “We don’t need China and, frankly, would be far better off without them” is frighteningly delusional.
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Doug Noland: Comeuppance
I understand why market professionals, pundits and journalists focus on the conventional “recession risk” explanation for sinking Treasury yields and the inverted curve. For one, there is insufficient awareness as to the deep structural impairments that today permeate global finance.
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Doug Noland: China Tariff Tweets
There is ample justification for gold’s runup – experimental activist monetary policy, a world of debt, a historic global securities Bubble, and a troubling geopolitical backdrop.
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Doug Noland: Fanning the Flames
Playing a dangerous game, the Fed is now moving from accommodating this Bubble to actively stimulating it – from pushing back against a tightening of financial conditions to pushing forward already extraordinarily loose conditions.
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Back to Zero
It’s always the same: Everyone is happy to ignore bubbles when they’re inflating. Bubble analysis, by its nature, will appear foolish for a while. But bubbles inevitably burst. There is no doubt that China’s historic bubble will burst, and I expect this will prove the catalyst for faltering bubbles across the globe – including here in the U.S.