Author Archives

  • Doug Noland: Monetary Disorder In Extremis

    Every wave ends the same

    The U.S. Bubble Economy structure has evolved into a voracious Credit glutton. There’s a strong case for significant additional fiscal stimulus. The case for boosting monetary stimulus is not compelling. Financial conditions have remained ultra-loose. Credit stays readily available for even the riskiest corporate borrowers, as bond issuance surges to new heights. While formidable, the remarkable speculative Bubble throughout corporate Credit is dwarfed by what has regressed to a raging stock market mania.

  • Doug Noland: Pondering the New Treasury Secretary

    …there’s a salient aspect of Yellen’s career that should not be overlooked: Her failure as Fed chair…

  • Doug Noland: Scorched Earth

    Covid bestowed end-of-cycle excess a hardy additional lease on life.

  • Doug Noland: Well, That’s Some Weird… Stuff

    At this point, markets are scary dysfunctional. Melt-ups lay the groundwork for breakdowns. And the longer markets disregard reality, the more destabilizing the eventual reckoning. There’s a major economic crisis shoe to drop when market Bubbles succumb.

  • Doug Noland: Critical Juncture

    But if an adverse outcome didn’t materialize, the unwind of hedges could spur markets higher while stoking speculative excess.

  • Doug Noland: Very Dangerous

    And don’t get me going on the Federal Reserve’s buying Apple’s corporate bonds when credit card rates are 17%.

  • Doug Noland: The New Massive

    We’re drifting ever deeper into dangerous territory. The economy sopped up last year’s $3.1 TN federal deficit like water into a dry sponge. The conventional narrative holds that the pre-COVID economy was robust and healthy. It was neither.

  • Doug Noland’s: Moral Hazard Pinnacle (infinite money printing announced)

    At an event sponsored by the Institute of International Finance, Randal Quarles offered an admission: “It may be that there is a simple macro fact that the Treasury market, being so much larger than it was even a few years ago, much larger than it was a decade ago, and now really much larger than it was even a few years ago, that the sheer volume there may have outpaced the ability of the private-market infrastructure to kind of support stress of any sort there. …Will there be some indefinite need for the Fed to provide — not as a way of supporting the issuance of Treasuries, but as a way of supporting a functioning market in Treasuries — to participate as a purchaser for some period of time.”

  • Doug Noland: Weird

    The President is diagnosed with COVID-19, with rapidly worsening symptoms prompting a Friday evening Marine One flight to Walter Reed Medical Center. By Monday, he is back to the White House apparently feeling spryer than when he was a man… Read More ›

  • TSP Smart: The Stock Market’s Tinderbox

    The November 3rd election could be the most heavily hedged-against event in market history. Moreover, the most hedged event comes in the most speculative of market backdrops – which follows history’s greatest expansion of central bank liquidity. Tinderbox.