Author Archives
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TSP Smart: Sword of Damocles
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TSP Smart: Bear Market Rally Top?
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TSP Smart: The Soft Pivot & The Everything Squeeze
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TSP Smart: Crazy Talk
Reliance on some “neutral rate” to calibrate monetary policy is deeply flawed doctrine. The Fed’s assumptive 2.5% neutral rate may have seemed reasonable during the recent “Risk Off” backdrop. In the current squeeze rally environment, however, it is Indefensible – or, in the words of Mohamed El-Erian, “comical.”
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TSP Smart: Nowhere to Run
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TSP Smart: The Greater Financial Crisis Emerges
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TSP Smart: Until Something Breaks
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TSP Smart: Pondering Modern-Day Runs
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Doug Noland: Calm Before the Storm
…more pressing, the blowup in Kuroda’s JGB yield peg gamble might be only weeks away. At this point, market operators (i.e. the leveraged speculating community) smell blood. Shorting JGBs at a 25 basis point yield – in today’s backdrop of surging global inflation and bond yields – provides a rare risk vs. reward opportunity for speculating in a multi-trillion dollar market.
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Doug Noland: Bursting Bubbles and Failed Experiments