Author Archives

  • Doug Noland: The Short but Momentous History of Fed QE

    Central banking traditionally operated as a judicious and conservative institution, with an overarching mandate focused on promoting monetary and financial stability. Historically, recognition that missteps can impart such profound societal hardship necessitated an incremental and risk-averse approach. Stability and doing… Read More ›

  • Doug Noland: That’s on Them

    Wealth was redistributed – and count me skeptical that the flow was from professional speculators to retail traders.

  • Doug Noland: The Great 2021 Squeeze Mania

    A significant “risk off” deleveraging event is likely now unfolding. The dislocation in the short stock universe has inflicted serious losses across hedge fund strategies. These drawdowns dictate risk control measures, moves to reduce exposures including long holdings.

  • Doug Noland: Short-Term Unsustainable

    This is one of the most dangerous and dishonest false narratives of our times. “…even though the amount of debt relative to the economy has gone up, the interest burden hasn’t.”

  • Doug Noland: The Reality of Financial Dominance

    Does this ensure accelerating general price inflation? Not necessarily. There remains the possibility for the bursting Bubble scenario with collapsing asset prices, de-leveraging, illiquidity and resulting deflationary pressures. But especially after what was experienced in 2020, we must assume global central banks would respond in concert with multi-Trillions of additional monetary inflation.

  • Doug Noland: Issues 2021

    For years now, my beginning of the year “Issues” pieces have featured a key Credit Bubble maxim: “The Bubble either further inflates or bursts.” While easier to dismiss than ever, this dynamic has never been as germane. The Fed-induced Bubble is raging out of control. Monetary Disorder is acute and highly destabilizing. Sustainability must be questioned.

  • Doug Noland: 2020 Year in Review

    The issue of “sound money” is viewed as hopelessly archaic, a reality that my 20 plus years of CBBs has failed to alter. The challenge to warning of the myriad pernicious dangers associated with Monetary Inflation is made no easier by markets creating Trillions of added perceived wealth

  • Doug Noland: $10 Trillion In Nine Months

    Whether it’s the U.S., China or elsewhere, Bubbles reach a point where risk becomes impossible to control.

  • Doug Noland: Monetary Disorder In Extremis

    Every wave ends the same

    The U.S. Bubble Economy structure has evolved into a voracious Credit glutton. There’s a strong case for significant additional fiscal stimulus. The case for boosting monetary stimulus is not compelling. Financial conditions have remained ultra-loose. Credit stays readily available for even the riskiest corporate borrowers, as bond issuance surges to new heights. While formidable, the remarkable speculative Bubble throughout corporate Credit is dwarfed by what has regressed to a raging stock market mania.

  • Doug Noland: Pondering the New Treasury Secretary

    …there’s a salient aspect of Yellen’s career that should not be overlooked: Her failure as Fed chair…