In the quarter just ended the SP500 Earnings Per Share was down over 5% after taking out the energy sector’s record profits.
In particular, I fear concurrent crises of confidence in policymaking and market structure. De-risking/deleveraging will feed illiquidity and market dislocation. Global derivatives markets will be severely tested.
The billionaires own the media on the Left and Right. Don’t expect to read much about their real agenda in the news until it is too late.
July’s positive seasonal tendency is behind us. August’s negative seasonal tendency is upon us.
F B does not like my analysis? I’m reposting this because F B algos had issues with the images but would not say what and there is no one to talk to. I deleted one image.
The SP500 moved from the bottom of the price channel to the top within the day on 13 April. The price channel is declining so today’s move up means little so far.
At first I was half joking, then I decided it was the only way, but I never expected the Fed would come to the same conclusion.
Our latest Market Risk E-mail is posted under our Market Commentary section for all subscribers today. Also, I’ve provide a short summary on our projections for different investments under our Current Allocations page.
The SP500 holds 80% by value of the total US stock market. It holds 45% of the developed world’s stock value. It is the leading index to watch and analyze for understanding the larger moves of the global stock market.
If interest rates today matched inflation the 10-year would already be 8% which in turn would collapse valuations back to 10x earnings… so the stock market would be 65% lower today relative to earnings.