Author Archives
Tired of the superfluous investment news and black box strategies, we set out to find the best strategy for diversified index funds. After researching investment news letters and strategies, we found what we think is hands down the best strategy since it is simple to execute, avoids most bear market losses, and significantly beats a buy and hold investor over the full market cycle. Our goal is to help investors avoid expensive fees and commissions and unrecoverable investment mistakes. We enjoy sharing our research and if you read us you will learn why our motto is simply "Invest Smart".
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TSP funds: I’m Sure It’s Nothing
No sorry, I’m not posting a TSP chart this time. I know, if you stare at the TSP charts your TSP fund price goes up faster. And if they went up last year that means they will go up forever. … Read More ›
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Doug Noland: Now the Downside
Excerpts from Doug Noland’s The Perils of Inflationism Proponents proclaim a decade of central bank stimulus has proven a tremendous success. They would point first to stock, bond and asset markets more generally. I view the same markets and see… Read More ›
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The Best TSP Allocation for 2019
I’ve updated my Best TSP Allocation for the new year. The discussion on the best TSP funds has not changed significantly this year other than discussing the new TSP I fund index. What has changed is our view of where… Read More ›
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Doug Noland: THE Credit Bubble Peak
For those unfamiliar with Doug Noland he uses his accounting background and study of history’s bubbles to chronicle the current global credit bubble. This week he exams the balance sheet of the United States to highlight where we are in… Read More ›
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Doug Noland: Framework for Monitoring Financial Stability
Excerpt: I appreciate the Fed’s attention to financial stability, stating explicitly the central role it plays within its broader mandate. Powell’s speech offered a definition of “financial stability:” “A stable financial system is one that continues to function effectively even… Read More ›
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TSP Funds: Looking for a Rhyme
So far the SP500 matches the typical large correction footprint. Plunge 10% or more, bounce back 40-70%, then roll over for a retest of the correction lows. Sometimes the second low is higher, sometimes slightly lower – it does not… Read More ›
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Doug Noland: Canary in the Credit Market’s Coal Mine
What ever happened to “Six Sigma”? GE was one of the most beloved and hyped S&P500 stocks during the late-nineties Bubble Era. With “visionary” Jack Welch at the helm, GE was being transformed into a New Age industrial powerhouse –… Read More ›
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TSP Charts: Waiting for Santa
October is known for market corrections and this Fall did not disappoint with a 10% correction in the SP500 (TSP C fund) and a 15% correction in the non-sp500 small caps (TSP S fund). The correction started elevated above our… Read More ›
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Doug Noland: Back to Fundamentals
Excerpt: At this point, I seriously doubt the Fed has a solid grasp of the (direct and indirect) sources of the Trillions of global liquidity that have flooded into U.S. securities and asset markets over the past decade. I take… Read More ›
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TSP Charts: 2019 Forecasts
So the election is old news and the market will start pricing in 2019 trends and expectations soon. The real effects of those expectations will not set in until after Christmas because of the end-of-the-year Santa Rally usually starts just… Read More ›