Author Archives
Tired of the superfluous investment news and black box strategies, we set out to find the best strategy for diversified index funds. After researching investment news letters and strategies, we found what we think is hands down the best strategy since it is simple to execute, avoids most bear market losses, and significantly beats a buy and hold investor over the full market cycle. Our goal is to help investors avoid expensive fees and commissions and unrecoverable investment mistakes. We enjoy sharing our research and if you read us you will learn why our motto is simply "Invest Smart".
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Doug Noland: No Holds Barred
The world is now fully embroiled in a most precarious period. I wonder if the Fed is comfortable seeing the markets dash skyward – the small caps up 16.4% y-t-d, Banks 15.9%, Transports 15.2%, Biotechs 18.5% and the Semiconductors 17.0%…. Read More ›
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TSP Charts: Rant Time
So why does the market not care about crashing profits? Because profits and the economy have not driven this bull market. Just the opposite. Bad news often sends the markets surging. Why?
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Doug Noland: Delusional
… deflation is a fateful consequence of bursting Bubbles – Bubbles inflated in the process of central bankers fighting so-called “deflationary forces.” Now, after thirty years of unending global Credit growth, activist central banking and egregious financial speculation, Bubble risk has never been so great: “The amazing lurch toward recession” and financial dislocation specifically because of a failed experiment in QE and inflationist monetary management.
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Doug Noland: No Mystery
Yet with global markets in a synchronized rally, one easily assumes the Fed and central banks have again worked their magic. Stability has engulfed the world. Nothing could be more detached from reality.
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TSP Charts: Patience Please
Most of the major indexes look precarious. They look like they jumped back up and are hanging on by their fingertips. Can they pull themselves up through resistance or will they retest their lows? We’re watching all the signals.
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Doug Noland: Monetary Disorder 2019
Serious illiquidity issues were unfolding a small number of trading sessions ago, as equities and fixed-income outflows – along with derivatives-related and speculative selling – began to overwhelm the marketplace. Fed assurances reversed trading dynamics. De-risking/deleveraging has, for now, given way to “risk on.” A powerful confluence of short covering and risk embracement (and leveraging) has acutely speculative markets once again perceiving liquidity abundance and unwavering central bank support.
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TSP Charts: An Ode to Buy & Hold
Thank you for staying with the ship while it is taking on water and the storm is approaching. Sure it is still floating after the last storm, but it has taken on a lot of water since then. Not everyone can get in the life rafts. Thank you for waiting.
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Doug Noland: Excerpts from Issues 2019
Crisis Dynamics tend to be a process. There’s the manic phase followed by some type of shock. There’s at least a partial recovery and a return of optimism – bolstered by dovish central bankers. It’s the second major leg down when things turn more serious – for sentiment, for market dynamics and illiquidity. Disappointment turns to disenchantment and, eventually, revulsion. It’s been a long time since market participants were tested by a prolonged, grinding bear market.
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Doug Noland: Thoughts About Liquidity
“Money” challenged – and often confounded – economic thinkers for centuries. It functions as both as a “medium of exchange” and “unit of account.” Simple enough. Too often the focus has been how to use money to stimulate economic activity… Read More ›
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TSP Funds & Two Fish Swimming
Two fish were swimming past houses and cars and the first fish said, “this certainly is a large tsunami” and the second fish said “what’s a tsunami” and the first fish said “a tsunami is a large wall of water that pushes inland” and the second fish said “what’s water”.