Author Archives
Tired of the superfluous investment news and black box strategies, we set out to find the best strategy for diversified index funds. After researching investment news letters and strategies, we found what we think is hands down the best strategy since it is simple to execute, avoids most bear market losses, and significantly beats a buy and hold investor over the full market cycle. Our goal is to help investors avoid expensive fees and commissions and unrecoverable investment mistakes. We enjoy sharing our research and if you read us you will learn why our motto is simply "Invest Smart".
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Doug Noland: Back to Fundamentals
Excerpt: At this point, I seriously doubt the Fed has a solid grasp of the (direct and indirect) sources of the Trillions of global liquidity that have flooded into U.S. securities and asset markets over the past decade. I take… Read More ›
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TSP Charts: 2019 Forecasts
So the election is old news and the market will start pricing in 2019 trends and expectations soon. The real effects of those expectations will not set in until after Christmas because of the end-of-the-year Santa Rally usually starts just… Read More ›
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Doug Noland: MBS and the Core
My thesis holds that the global Bubble has been pierced at the “Periphery.” After erupting at the “Periphery,” de-risking, deleveraging and Contagion have been gravitating toward the “Core.” Sinking MBS prices (spiking yields) confirm my view that “Periphery to Core Crisis Dynamics” have now attained important momentum at the “Core.”
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TSP Just Got Amazoned
Way, way back in August (ancient history for stock speculators) I wrote a blog post called Don’t Get Amazoned. I was metaphorically speaking about the US stock market and what I see coming. But guess what, the market and TSP equity… Read More ›
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Doug Noland: “Whatever They Want” Coming Home to Roost
I see things similarly to the great statesman, the ailing Paul Volcker [respected former Federal Reserve Chairman]: “A hell of a mess in every direction.” The stock market is only a few weeks past all-time highs, yet the finger-pointing has… Read More ›
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TSP Charts: As I was saying
The larger corrections usually send plenty of signals if you know where the look and have the time to watch. This was definitely one of those times. If you reread my 5 October blog post, you will find the… Read More ›
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TSP Charts: Quicklook 21 October 2018
So far we have only seen a minor 6% correction in the SP500 (TSP C fund). Often the smaller corrections bounce back in a “V” bottom and end back close to their old highs. The larger 10%+ corrections usually have… Read More ›
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Doug Noland: Chinese Bubble at Precipice
[Excerpts] When I ponder China’s incredibly bloated banking sector, its historic apartment Bubble, its local government debt issues, massive future national government borrowings – and likely one of the most maladjusted economies ever – I unfortunately don’t see a stable currency… Read More ›
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Doug Noland: Rude Awakening Coming
Highlights: Today’s backdrop is altogether different than that of February. For one, back then “money” was flowing readily into the emerging markets – too much of it “hot money.” “Risk on” was still dominant early in the year. Speculative leverage was… Read More ›
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Doug Noland: Contemporary Finance’s Defect
It [Contemporary Finance] amounted to the greatest transformation in financial and market structure in history, all backstopped by the “activist” Federal Reserve and global central bankers. It was a New Era – a New Paradigm – that worked miraculously until… Read More ›