Recent Posts - page 2
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Part I: History of the Credit Bubble
I’m here today with what I believe is a critically important message. The global Bubble – history’s greatest Bubble – is bursting. The previous cycle has ended, and a new cycle has begun to unfold. We are about to commence an adjustment period that I fear will shake us to the core.
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Part II: The Holy Crap Moment & Derivatives
Some refer to a “Lehman” or a “Minsky moment.” I call it the “holy crap moment”. Suddenly, things are not as we thought; they might be spiraling out of control, and our government benefactor no longer has an answer.
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Part III: The Unfolding
In particular, I fear concurrent crises of confidence in policymaking and market structure. De-risking/deleveraging will feed illiquidity and market dislocation. Global derivatives markets will be severely tested.
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A Threatening Turn
There are a lot of financial nuclear land mines that will be going off as rates are normalized. Maybe that is why the Fed is having an emergency meeting Monday.
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TSP Smart: The Acceleration Begins
“the sudden appearance of the Bond Vigilantes in the gilts markets (after all these years) was the most portentous market development in a week of portentous developments.”
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Deflation and Policy Mistakes
When wall street analyst start talking about deflation, they are talking about financial asset prices NOT consumer inflation. Sorry wall street, but bubbles have to deflate.
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TSP Smart: Why Does the NY Fed have a Trading Floor?
Bailing out the Wall Street megabanks that are serially fined and hit with felony counts appears to be catching on as a major career advancement strategy at the New York Fed.
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TSP Smart: The Stench at the Top
After overwhelming evidence was obtained of wrong doing, nothing was done, no body wants to talk about it, minimal changes were made.
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TSP Smart: Supper Credit Bubble Pay Back Time
The Super Credit Bubble is at the brink.
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TSP Smart: Sword of Damocles
I fear the next phase of financial asset repricing will be both disorienting and destabilizing.