Recent Posts - page 2
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TSP Smart: “Political”- Economy
The billionaire’s club has been busy in politics for some time. In order to achieve all their goals, they have to overcome one inconvenience – democracy. But this is easy for them today with their wealth and politicians willing to simply comply for donations.
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TSP Smart: Lesson Never Learned
Excellent run down of how each bubble became larger and more dangerous. And how perceived financial wealth will have an unavoidable reckoning soon.
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TSP Smart: Market Risk Updated
Our latest Market Risk E-mail is posted under our Market Commentary section for all subscribers today. Also, I’ve provide a short summary on our projections for different investments under our Current Allocations page.
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Doug Noland: Inklings of Secular Change
At this point, the Fed would have to dramatically tighten financial conditions to reset inflation expectations. But such a move would collapse fragile Bubbles. Going forward, de-risking will require more selling of securities holdings, rather than simply buying cheap hedges.
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TSPsmart: SP500 Quicklook 17 March
The SP500 holds 80% by value of the total US stock market. It holds 45% of the developed world’s stock value. It is the leading index to watch and analyze for understanding the larger moves of the global stock market.
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TSP Smart: The US UnBalanced Sheet
Returning to 2000/07 valuations requires a 40% drop in the US stock index; returning to above mean value 100% of GDP would require a 70% drop
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Doug Noland: Day Nine [since WWIII went hot]
In simple terms, it doesn’t work in reverse. The current financial structure is viable only so long as the Bubble is inflating – only while credit, leverage and speculative flows are expanding. In the event of serious de-risking and deleveraging, markets are prone to illiquidity, dislocation and panic.
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TSP Smart: Wars and Markets
If interest rates today matched inflation the 10-year would already be 8% which in turn would collapse valuations back to 10x earnings… so the stock market would be 65% lower today relative to earnings.
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TSP Smart: I don’t think WWIII will be good for the Markets
We are already, she said, in the middle of a third World War, whether we’ve fully grasped it or not.
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Doug Noland: Honor
And if I were selling subscriptions or using an email list, this is where the cancellations come. Here it goes: I guess I’m a traditionalist. As Americans, during a crisis we would rally around the President. This is not the time – the era – to crave – to strive – for his failure. There’s no Honor in that. Most regrettably, we today have our own domestic “iron curtain” and “cold war” mentality. It will not serve us well.