Recent Posts - page 3

  • TSP funds & Reaching the Neverland

    Who needs an economy when you can print-baby-print or leverage up the whole stock market via buybacks on the open market or with leveraged mergers and acquisitions that come with golden parachutes for the CEOs.

  • Officially on “Periphery” Contagion Watch

    Beijing has had ample time to research Bubbles, yet they still have limited actual experience with Credit booms and busts. China has no experience with mortgage finance and housing Bubbles. They have never before managed an economy with a massively leveraged corporate sector – with much of the borrowings via marketable debt issuance. They have no experience with a multi-trillion (US$) money-market complex – and minimal with derivatives. Beijing has zero experience with a banking system that has inflated to about $40 TN – financing a wildly imbalanced and structurally impaired economy (not to mention fraud and malfeasance of epic proportions).

  • TSP in the new economy

    The bottom line is consumer spending which makes up the bulk of the GDP model was down and business investment was down. And large inventory building is never a good sign and points to weaker growth in the out quarters.

  • TSP Charts: A walk around the markets

    I am reading a lot about the divergence in small caps from the large cap funds. It is worth watching, but it might just be seasonal tendencies.

  • TSP Smart: Doug Noland’s Full Capitulation

    The fact that Fed President chose the Fed’s 1998 response to talk about is chilling. And why mention Autumn of 2020 as the length of time to keep “inflation” running high… what inflation is he talking about? Is he saying “Mr. President, we will keep the stock market bubble inflating until the election”? Absolutely. Why? So the Fed can stay “independent”.

  • TSP Charts: Quick look

    After creating $17 trillion dollars and pumping most of it into the financial markets, the central banks collectively tried to pull back in early 2018. It did not work out so well as evidence in the chart below. So the… Read More ›

  • Doug Noland: The Perils of Stop and Go

    As we are witnessing again in early-2019, when “risk on” is inciting leveraged speculation markets create their own self-reinforcing liquidity. It is when “risk off” de-risking/deleveraging takes hold that illiquidity quickly reemerges as a serious issue. And I would argue that it is the inescapable predicament of speculative Bubbles that they create ever-increasing vulnerability to downside reversals, illiquidity, dislocation and panic. 

  • TSP & Faux Capitalism

    You had better start trying to understand what is going on because you are about to live with the fallout in one way or another. It will not only affect your TSP investments, it will affect the future of our country. It is hard to get people to listen at the top especially when the naysayers have been “wrong” for so long and reality is so illusive.

  • TSP: the Bitcoin effect

    No one will notice.  No one will consider this effect on the markets at large. It does not fit their models. So this month the exchanges are starting to wind down Futures trading of Bitcoin due to lack of trading… Read More ›

  • Doug Noland: Everything Rally

    While risk market participants fixate on capturing unbridled short-terms speculative returns, the safe havens see the inevitability of market dislocation, bursting Bubbles and ever more central bank monetary stimulus.