Recent Posts - page 3
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TSPsmart: SP500 Quicklook 17 March
The SP500 holds 80% by value of the total US stock market. It holds 45% of the developed world’s stock value. It is the leading index to watch and analyze for understanding the larger moves of the global stock market.
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TSP Smart: The US UnBalanced Sheet
Returning to 2000/07 valuations requires a 40% drop in the US stock index; returning to above mean value 100% of GDP would require a 70% drop
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Doug Noland: Day Nine [since WWIII went hot]
In simple terms, it doesn’t work in reverse. The current financial structure is viable only so long as the Bubble is inflating – only while credit, leverage and speculative flows are expanding. In the event of serious de-risking and deleveraging, markets are prone to illiquidity, dislocation and panic.
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TSP Smart: Wars and Markets
If interest rates today matched inflation the 10-year would already be 8% which in turn would collapse valuations back to 10x earnings… so the stock market would be 65% lower today relative to earnings.
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TSP Smart: I don’t think WWIII will be good for the Markets
We are already, she said, in the middle of a third World War, whether we’ve fully grasped it or not.
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Doug Noland: Honor
And if I were selling subscriptions or using an email list, this is where the cancellations come. Here it goes: I guess I’m a traditionalist. As Americans, during a crisis we would rally around the President. This is not the time – the era – to crave – to strive – for his failure. There’s no Honor in that. Most regrettably, we today have our own domestic “iron curtain” and “cold war” mentality. It will not serve us well.
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TSP Smart: Principles of Financial Bubbles & Today
I’m deeply concerned, and part of my anxiety comes from knowing people haven’t been paying attention. A Russian invasion of Ukraine has potential to be a highly destabilizing catalyst, slamming fragile global markets, exacerbating inflationary pressures, accelerating financial asset Bubble deflation…
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TSP Quicklook: 18 February 2022
The SP500 needs to hold 4300. There is little support below this level.
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Doug Noland: Lost Control
Consumer price inflation continued to run hot in January. CPI increased a stronger-than-expected 0.6% during the month, boosting y-o-y inflation to a 40-year high 7.5%. Hyperbole is unnecessary. Inflation is out of Control.
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Doug Noland: A Changing World
“The world’s top central banks are about to embark on ‘the largest quantitative tightening in history’, analysts at Morgan Stanley said…, estimating that $2.2 trillion worth of support would disappear over the next 12 months.