Recent Posts - page 3
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Doug Noland: 2019 in Review
To summarize the 2019 policy backdrop in one word: capitulation. It was to be a year of monetary policy normalization. The new Fed chairman was to finally return policy rates to a more reasonable level. In 2019, the odds central bankers would ever actually tighten monetary conditions became exceedingly low.
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Doug Noland: Crazy Extremis
… was the Great Depression chiefly the consequence of post-crash policy mistakes, as conventional thinking has come to profess? Or did the previous “Roaring Twenties” Bubble sow the seeds of a major down-cycle and collapse?
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TSP Funds: The Fed’s Socialism
Forgive my rant. But when I hear the Fed talk about their concern for inflation expectations, inequality, and now global warming it gets me going. It’s their way of avoiding the truth.
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Doug Noland: Weak Link
We won’t know all the crazy leverage and derivative strategies spawned during this period until the next big de-risking/deleveraging period
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These Are the Banks that Own the New York Fed and Its Money Button
The New York Fed has now pumped out upwards of $3 trillion in a period of 63 days to unnamed trading houses on Wall Street to ease a liquidity crisis that has yet to be credibly explained.
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TSP I Fund: Shut the Barn Door!
What’s the battle of the TSP I fund about and mean to our investments?
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Doug Noland: Music to the Market
From a conventional “financial stability” standpoint, this Credit cycle may appear virtually pristine. Yet Credit Bubbles survive only with unrelenting debt growth. Today’s mirage of “financial stability” depends on ongoing massive federal deficits coupled with aggressive monetary stimulus.
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TSP Investing: Where there’s smoke…
A financial smoke detector went off in the last month (I’m sure your financial adviser told you about it, right). The financial media provided many excuses like “who knew corporations would have to pay taxes like they do every year at this time surprising the bankers” (never mind they have the lowest tax rates ever).
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Doug Noland: China Watch
First time all four developed countries have been negative year-over-year since last two global recessions.
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Doug Noland: What the Heck is Happening in the Cayman Islands?
It was no coincidence that U.S. “repo” market tumult followed on the heels of an abrupt reversal in global bond yields. I appreciate how the enormous global buildup in leveraged speculation works miraculously so long as bond yields are declining (bond prices rising). If only bond yields could fall forever – even as debt and deficits expand uncontrollably. It’s not clear to me how the global system doesn’t turn increasingly unstable, which I believe explains why the ECB and now the Fed have resorted again to QE.