The SP500 holds 80% by value of the total US stock market. It holds 45% of the developed world’s stock value. It is the leading index to watch and analyze for understanding the larger moves of the global stock market.
Returning to 2000/07 valuations requires a 40% drop in the US stock index; returning to above mean value 100% of GDP would require a 70% drop
In simple terms, it doesn’t work in reverse. The current financial structure is viable only so long as the Bubble is inflating – only while credit, leverage and speculative flows are expanding. In the event of serious de-risking and deleveraging, markets are prone to illiquidity, dislocation and panic.
If interest rates today matched inflation the 10-year would already be 8% which in turn would collapse valuations back to 10x earnings… so the stock market would be 65% lower today relative to earnings.
We are already, she said, in the middle of a third World War, whether we’ve fully grasped it or not.
And if I were selling subscriptions or using an email list, this is where the cancellations come. Here it goes: I guess I’m a traditionalist. As Americans, during a crisis we would rally around the President. This is not the time – the era – to crave – to strive – for his failure. There’s no Honor in that. Most regrettably, we today have our own domestic “iron curtain” and “cold war” mentality. It will not serve us well.
I’m deeply concerned, and part of my anxiety comes from knowing people haven’t been paying attention. A Russian invasion of Ukraine has potential to be a highly destabilizing catalyst, slamming fragile global markets, exacerbating inflationary pressures, accelerating financial asset Bubble deflation…
The SP500 needs to hold 4300. There is little support below this level.
Consumer price inflation continued to run hot in January. CPI increased a stronger-than-expected 0.6% during the month, boosting y-o-y inflation to a 40-year high 7.5%. Hyperbole is unnecessary. Inflation is out of Control.
“The world’s top central banks are about to embark on ‘the largest quantitative tightening in history’, analysts at Morgan Stanley said…, estimating that $2.2 trillion worth of support would disappear over the next 12 months.