Perspectives

TSP & Vanguard Smart Investor Posts

Doug Noland: State-Directed Credit Splurge

With 2020 GDP estimates in the 2.0 to 3.0% range, the divergence between Chinese Credit and economic output is unprecedented. China’s “Terminal Phase” excess – including rapid acceleration of late-cycle loans of deteriorating quality – is unparalleled in terms of both degree and duration.

TSP S Fund, Tesla and “Never Befores”

A lot of indicators are doing things they have never done before. And I see this as the result of the central banks flooding the financial markets with liquidity and much of that liquidity ending up in a few companies. Tesla is one of them. It still sits in the TSP S fund which invests in all the non-sp500 companies.

TSP Smart: Off Subject on the Economy

So you might ask why the economy is off-subject for an investing service. That would be because the economy has not mattered to the markets since the Great Recession. And when it does, bad news usually propels the market higher on hopes of more financial stimulus – the real driver.

Doug Noland: Crossing Red Lines

I seriously doubt China’s banking system inflates from $8 TN to $43 TN during this cycle without Trillions of “Bubble Dollars” flooding the world and its resulting reserves horde. U.S. crisis and QE1 provided China a blank check for a massive $600 billion 2009 stimulus plan. And Chinese Credit – along with investment, manufacturing, apartment Bubble, economic boom, technological advancement, military buildup, global influence peddling, and ambitions for superpower status – never looked back.