It was no coincidence that U.S. “repo” market tumult followed on the heels of an abrupt reversal in global bond yields. I appreciate how the enormous global buildup in leveraged speculation works miraculously so long as bond yields are declining (bond prices rising). If only bond yields could fall forever – even as debt and deficits expand uncontrollably. It’s not clear to me how the global system doesn’t turn increasingly unstable, which I believe explains why the ECB and now the Fed have resorted again to QE.
TSP & Vanguard Smart Investor Posts
This was the second strongest (22-week) monetary expansion in U.S. history, trailing only 2011’s “QE2” period…
Today the SP500 (TSP C fund) is below its August 2018 high and the TSP S fund is 10% below its August 2018 high – distribution, distribution, distribution. Market tops take time. Secular market tops aided by central banks take longer.
This year we are seeing more underlying turmoil in the global financial markets. The Fed and media talking heads are telling us the markets need more financial reserves ignoring the trillions that are supposedly in them already. No, I think Doug Noland has it right – “The issue is not a shortage of reserves but a gross excess of speculative leverage.”
Tread careful this Fall. Sometimes those Autumn fires get out of control.
Something changed this week in the markets. It has us on heightened alert.
Seventeen trillion dollars of negative yielding bonds and climbing is not the result of free market capitalism. It is the terminal phase of the global credit bubble.
The notion that the Federal Reserve would not respond to declining stock prices – under any circumstance – has become heresy. Where was the outrage when Bill Dudley (while at Goldman Sachs) and others specifically called for the Fed to adopt policies to spur mortgage Credit expansion for the purpose of systemic reflation after the collapse of the “tech” Bubble?
And so much for “good friend.” I’ll assume affixing the “enemy” label to Xi Jinping denotes serious trade war escalation. The “We don’t need China and, frankly, would be far better off without them” is frighteningly delusional.
I’ve posted a special report on today’s market events and what they mean to our investment allocations for our members (all levels).
I understand why market professionals, pundits and journalists focus on the conventional “recession risk” explanation for sinking Treasury yields and the inverted curve. For one, there is insufficient awareness as to the deep structural impairments that today permeate global finance.