Perspectives

TSP & Vanguard Smart Investor Posts

Doug Noland: Un-Anchored

The financial sphere is not driven by inflation, but “inflation expectations”. The Fed will say whatever it takes to attempt to manage expectations, but the market may not listen. Higher inflation pushes interest rates higher, higher interest rates will bring down stocks… and bubbles do not work in reverse. This is the risk of 2021.

Doug Noland: Generational Turning Point?

Everyone is prepared for unchecked monetary and fiscal stimulus as far as the eye can see. But is existing market structure sustainable in a backdrop of unrelenting non-productive debt growth, rising inflation, waning central bank flexibility and shifting political priorities?