TSP & Vanguard Smart Investor Posts
This is not rocket science. It just takes time to do the research which is not something most investors have. This 15 minute guide will save you a lot of time and hopefully increase your future returns starting today by changing some assumptions about the TSP funds you can invest in.
My assessment remains that we are witnessing a colossal tug-o-war between free market price discovery and central bank interventions. The central banks are winning but each round requires much greater effort – meaning purchases of financial assets with money created out of thin air.
To summarize the 2019 policy backdrop in one word: capitulation. It was to be a year of monetary policy normalization. The new Fed chairman was to finally return policy rates to a more reasonable level. In 2019, the odds central bankers would ever actually tighten monetary conditions became exceedingly low.
… was the Great Depression chiefly the consequence of post-crash policy mistakes, as conventional thinking has come to profess? Or did the previous “Roaring Twenties” Bubble sow the seeds of a major down-cycle and collapse?
Forgive my rant. But when I hear the Fed talk about their concern for inflation expectations, inequality, and now global warming it gets me going. It’s their way of avoiding the truth.
We won’t know all the crazy leverage and derivative strategies spawned during this period until the next big de-risking/deleveraging period
The New York Fed has now pumped out upwards of $3 trillion in a period of 63 days to unnamed trading houses on Wall Street to ease a liquidity crisis that has yet to be credibly explained.
What’s the battle of the TSP I fund about and mean to our investments?
From a conventional “financial stability” standpoint, this Credit cycle may appear virtually pristine. Yet Credit Bubbles survive only with unrelenting debt growth. Today’s mirage of “financial stability” depends on ongoing massive federal deficits coupled with aggressive monetary stimulus.
A financial smoke detector went off in the last month (I’m sure your financial adviser told you about it, right). The financial media provided many excuses like “who knew corporations would have to pay taxes like they do every year at this time surprising the bankers” (never mind they have the lowest tax rates ever).