Perspectives

TSP & Vanguard Smart Investor Posts

TSP Charts: Rant Time

So why does the market not care about crashing profits? Because profits and the economy have not driven this bull market. Just the opposite. Bad news often sends the markets surging. Why?

Doug Noland: Delusional

… deflation is a fateful consequence of bursting Bubbles – Bubbles inflated in the process of central bankers fighting so-called “deflationary forces.” Now, after thirty years of unending global Credit growth, activist central banking and egregious financial speculation, Bubble risk has never been so great: “The amazing lurch toward recession” and financial dislocation specifically because of a failed experiment in QE and inflationist monetary management.

Doug Noland: No Mystery

Yet with global markets in a synchronized rally, one easily assumes the Fed and central banks have again worked their magic. Stability has engulfed the world. Nothing could be more detached from reality.

TSP Charts: Patience Please

Most of the major indexes look precarious. They look like they jumped back up and are hanging on by their fingertips. Can they pull themselves up through resistance or will they retest their lows? We’re watching all the signals.

Doug Noland: Monetary Disorder 2019

Serious illiquidity issues were unfolding a small number of trading sessions ago, as equities and fixed-income outflows – along with derivatives-related and speculative selling – began to overwhelm the marketplace. Fed assurances reversed trading dynamics. De-risking/deleveraging has, for now, given way to “risk on.” A powerful confluence of short covering and risk embracement (and leveraging) has acutely speculative markets once again perceiving liquidity abundance and unwavering central bank support.

TSP Charts: An Ode to Buy & Hold

Thank you for staying with the ship while it is taking on water and the storm is approaching. Sure it is still floating after the last storm, but it has taken on a lot of water since then. Not everyone can get in the life rafts. Thank you for waiting.

Doug Noland: Excerpts from Issues 2019

Crisis Dynamics tend to be a process. There’s the manic phase followed by some type of shock. There’s at least a partial recovery and a return of optimism – bolstered by dovish central bankers. It’s the second major leg down when things turn more serious – for sentiment, for market dynamics and illiquidity. Disappointment turns to disenchantment and, eventually, revulsion. It’s been a long time since market participants were tested by a prolonged, grinding bear market.

TSP Funds & Two Fish Swimming

Two fish were swimming past houses and cars and the first fish said, “this certainly is a large tsunami” and the second fish said “what’s a tsunami” and the first fish said “a tsunami is a large wall of water that pushes inland” and the second fish said “what’s water”.