Perspectives

TSP & Vanguard Smart Investor Posts

TSP Smart: Doug Noland’s Full Capitulation

The fact that Fed President chose the Fed’s 1998 response to talk about is chilling. And why mention Autumn of 2020 as the length of time to keep “inflation” running high… what inflation is he talking about? Is he saying “Mr. President, we will keep the stock market bubble inflating until the election”? Absolutely. Why? So the Fed can stay “independent”.

Doug Noland: The Perils of Stop and Go

As we are witnessing again in early-2019, when “risk on” is inciting leveraged speculation markets create their own self-reinforcing liquidity. It is when “risk off” de-risking/deleveraging takes hold that illiquidity quickly reemerges as a serious issue. And I would argue that it is the inescapable predicament of speculative Bubbles that they create ever-increasing vulnerability to downside reversals, illiquidity, dislocation and panic. 

TSP & Faux Capitalism

You had better start trying to understand what is going on because you are about to live with the fallout in one way or another. It will not only affect your TSP investments, it will affect the future of our country. It is hard to get people to listen at the top especially when the naysayers have been “wrong” for so long and reality is so illusive.

Doug Noland: Everything Rally

While risk market participants fixate on capturing unbridled short-terms speculative returns, the safe havens see the inevitability of market dislocation, bursting Bubbles and ever more central bank monetary stimulus.

Doug Noland’s Uncharted Territory

The world is in completely uncharted territory. What unfolded was a complete breakdown in discipline – in central banking, in Washington borrowing and spending, and throughout highly speculative markets. And I do believe the new Fed Chairman had hopes of normalizing Fed policymaking, letting the markets begin stand on their own, and commencing the long-delayed process of system normalization. Pressure – markets and otherwise – became too much to bear. Fed U-Turn, January 4, 2019 – immediately transmitted globally.