TSP & Vanguard Smart Investor Posts
Reliance on some “neutral rate” to calibrate monetary policy is deeply flawed doctrine. The Fed’s assumptive 2.5% neutral rate may have seemed reasonable during the recent “Risk Off” backdrop. In the current squeeze rally environment, however, it is Indefensible – or, in the words of Mohamed El-Erian, “comical.”
The billionaires own the media on the Left and Right. Don’t expect to read much about their real agenda in the news until it is too late.
July’s positive seasonal tendency is behind us. August’s negative seasonal tendency is upon us.
If your financial adviser is not talking about the this or including it in allocation advice you might need a new advisor. It is a new investing world.
At this point, I doubt the unfolding global liquidity crisis can be contained. And I wouldn’t be surprised if an intense bout of global de-risking/deleveraging erupts between now and the Fed meeting.
F B does not like my analysis? I’m reposting this because F B algos had issues with the images but would not say what and there is no one to talk to. I deleted one image.
…more pressing, the blowup in Kuroda’s JGB yield peg gamble might be only weeks away. At this point, market operators (i.e. the leveraged speculating community) smell blood. Shorting JGBs at a 25 basis point yield – in today’s backdrop of surging global inflation and bond yields – provides a rare risk vs. reward opportunity for speculating in a multi-trillion dollar market.
The crime syndicate otherwise known as wall street is under investigation. But don’t feel comforted because usually they find crimes but nothing ever happens.
I can’t see how this adjustment proceeds smoothly. A panicked run – similar to what was materializing in March 2020 – is a distinct possibility. Credit is inherently unstable. This has been a deeply-flawed multi-decade experiment.
The SP500 moved from the bottom of the price channel to the top within the day on 13 April. The price channel is declining so today’s move up means little so far.