Recent Posts - page 6

  • TSP Charts: About Those Valuations

    For some reason President Reagan’s former budget director has an issue with the Russell 2000 small cap index “stratospheric” price-to-earnings (PE) ratio. David Stockman writes that the “actual” PE of the index that holds the 2000 smallest US listed companies is around 91 times earnings.  It was hitting an epic 142 at the end of January by some reports.

  • TSP Charts: Did you feel the tremor

    Did you feel the tremor in the financial markets the other day?  Probably not, but maybe you noticed the small tsunami that washed ashore in US Treasuries. After hitting a peak of 3.1% yield on 17 May the 10-year Treasury… Read More ›

  • Doug Noland: Unfolding Instability Thesis

    I doubt future analysts and historians looking back in 25 years will have much interest in whether inflation targets were achieved or policy effects on unemployment rates and GDP. Contemporary central bankers will instead be judged by the impact a… Read More ›

  • TSP Charts: The Last, Last Hurrah

    On January 19th 2015 I posted the TSP F Fund’s Last Hurrah.  Today, we are going to look at how the last Hurrah worked out and how it foretells the final “Hurrah” in the stock market. Of course, no one cares right… Read More ›

  • Doug Noland: Crisis Watch

    It’s worth recalling that the 2016 de-risking/de-leveraging episode was nipped in the bud by an upsurge in global QE (especially courtesy the ECB and BOJ) and a corresponding extension of easy money by the Federal Reserve. And let us not… Read More ›

  • Doug Noland: Disequilibrium

    In a world of too much “money” and Crowded Trades prevailing throughout the risk markets, it regresses into a dysfunctional game of disregarding risk and chasing performance. Buy and hold an equities index is, these days, pure genius. This speculative… Read More ›

  • TSP Charts: The Unfavorable Season

    If you do not know about the favorable and unfavorable season for the stock market, you might want to check out our take on Sell-in-May.  Unlike many who write about it, I’ve extensively researched it.  It’s the only strategy that I found beats buy and hold over the full market cycle (bull/bear).  And it lowers your investor stress level too.

  • Doug Noland: Old Roach Motel

    One hundred and six months. The current expansion, having emerged in the aftermath of the collapse of the mortgage finance Bubble, is now the second-longest on record (lagging only the 120-month 1990’s Bubble period). The unemployment rate dropped to 3.9%… Read More ›

  • TSP Charts: 2 May 2018

    SP500 index chart

    The SP500 index (TSP C fund) contains 80% of the market value of the total public US stock market.  Examining market internals and price action is one of many tools in gauging where we are in the stock market cycle… Read More ›

  • Doug Noland: Conventional Wisdom

    Conventional Wisdom is so often proved wrong. Thinking back over my career, it’s amazing how many times what is believed true without a doubt in the markets turns out completely erroneous. There’s no mystery behind this phenomenon. Responsibility lies foremost… Read More ›