Perspectives

TSP & Vanguard Smart Investor Posts

Doug Noland: Bubbles, Dams, War and Cracks

It was a close call, but the largest ever Q1 options/derivatives expiration went off without an accident. That said, it was anything but pretty. Friday saw a troubling market dynamic in full force. No place to hide. No safe havens. Key “insurance” (Credit default swaps) markets lurching toward dislocation. Global bonds under further heavy selling pressure. Treasuries, MBS, agencies, corporates, and muni bonds all hammered. Stocks clobbered. Precious metals battered. Spreads blowing out. CDS prices spiking higher. Emerging markets bludgeoned. Currency instability taking hold.

Scorched Earth

Treasuries are prominent throughout levered strategies. They are also integral to scores of hedging strategies. Importantly, systemic deleveraging risks quickly escalate when Treasury yields surge in the face of “risk off” market dynamics.