Perspectives

TSP & Vanguard Smart Investor Posts

Doug Noland: Dudley Sticks His Neck Out

The notion that the Federal Reserve would not respond to declining stock prices – under any circumstance – has become heresy. Where was the outrage when Bill Dudley (while at Goldman Sachs) and others specifically called for the Fed to adopt policies to spur mortgage Credit expansion for the purpose of systemic reflation after the collapse of the “tech” Bubble?

TSP Funds: War On, Risk Off

And so much for “good friend.” I’ll assume affixing the “enemy” label to Xi Jinping denotes serious trade war escalation. The “We don’t need China and, frankly, would be far better off without them” is frighteningly delusional.

Doug Noland: Comeuppance

I understand why market professionals, pundits and journalists focus on the conventional “recession risk” explanation for sinking Treasury yields and the inverted curve. For one, there is insufficient awareness as to the deep structural impairments that today permeate global finance.

TSP Funds: Wake Up Time

Don’t be fooled by short-term pops in price due to plunging interest rates. We it comes to fixed income funds, past performance can no longer be achieved again. We are simply accelerating to the point of no returns in the US bond market.

Doug Noland: Fanning the Flames

Playing a dangerous game, the Fed is now moving from accommodating this Bubble to actively stimulating it – from pushing back against a tightening of financial conditions to pushing forward already extraordinarily loose conditions.

Back to Zero

It’s always the same: Everyone is happy to ignore bubbles when they’re inflating. Bubble analysis, by its nature, will appear foolish for a while. But bubbles inevitably burst. There is no doubt that China’s historic bubble will burst, and I expect this will prove the catalyst for faltering bubbles across the globe – including here in the U.S.