The thing about polls is they base assumptions on previous elections. And the pollsters do not want to be wrong, so they keep it close.

I know Trump has strong support, but it has shrunk not grown since 2020. If 3% of Republicans have had enough and want to move on, it would be a near landslide.

But there is more. We are not having a Blue of Red wave as much as a Youth and Women wave. Both favor the Blue

Most age groups register at around a 70% rate. The youth jumped to about 50% in the last election and I think it might be higher this election. More women then young men. Although the under 30 men are still more Blue these days.

The over 65+ men lean toward Red while the women are split. The over 65+ group probably lost 3-4% of voters to passing away. The demographics going forward heavily favor the Blue and this election may accelerate this since many long time Republicans will be voting Blue for the first time.

If a couple of percent of Red voters decide to just stay home because they do not want to vote for Trump, the chances of the the Democrats taking the House climb significantly. You can thank Trump and his enablers.

Linsey Graham said in 2020 that Trump would be the Republicans undoing.

The Republicans have a problem. The party is led by MAGA, not conservatives. I do not see conservatives taking it back. Now what?

The “great experiment” has 4 more years. If they can fix some of the holes, maybe a lot longer. I still expect violence and chaos, but the chances it succeeds goes way down with a landslide or something close.

One market comment. If Harris wins the market will expect higher capital gains taxes in 2025 and the gainers will be sold into the end of the year. They may simply re-invest, but is could distort the Santa Rally.

Vote and be safe.

Michael Bond

Categories: Perspectives