TSP Smart: Re-opening

So the state of Georgia wants to start re-opening in late April based in part of the “positive data”. Ummmm… the positive data is due to the lock down and social distancing, not because the virus is going away.

And news out of China and South Korea is that people that recovered are getting re-infected. And those who had minor cases are showing no antibodies. And who is to say that someone who is asymptomatic today will not get hit later. There is so much we don’t know.

I get the economic issue – my base case is an economic depression. Minor or Great depends on policy decisions. I would hate to be a nurse or doctor in GA with this kind of support.

Here is what I have seen based on reports:

Every country and state has been late to lockdowns because when we hit (1) the level where hospitals are rapidly filling up, the “already infected and going to be serious in a few days” are well above the local healthcare systems capacity.

So then you get the late (2) lockdown and this results in (3) in about 10 days and the “growth” in hospital cases can come down at some point in the future.

My guess is Georgia is not at (3) but only seeing fewer cases walk in the door. How is their ventilator numbers doing? I don’t know. So if they come off social distancing too soon, they will have a harder time getting and staying under capacity.

I agree essential services need to go back to work. Sweden did not mandate lockdowns. They educated their citizens to understand the threat and to make good decisions. This requires an uniform message from leaders, something the US has not had.

If you are going to open up America slowly, it needs to be done with a strong message on the threat still out there. Not bosses calling up and telling workers to get to work or get fired. It will happen.

Good luck Georgia, you are going to need it.



Categories: Perspectives, The Smart Bird