TSP & the Unstoppable Bull Market?

Do you really think the bull market will never end?

It would be the first

Me neither.

The one thing about market tops is the forecast for the future HAS to be good and there HAS to be expectations for it to “continue for years” otherwise the selling would have already started.

Sometimes the unstoppable part gets tested in the charts. Has this Bull been stopped 2 or 3 times?

A lot of testing going on here

What’s Driving this Market

Whether the stock market passes the test this time and continues on to the next level depends on whether the drivers of this bull market are still in force and whether they can handle the growing headwinds.

And the drivers have not been corporate profits – which is good for the bulls since 2019 earnings forecasts have turned negative. And it has not been the economy because this has been the slowest 11 year growth in US history to include the 11 years after the 1929 stock market crash – you know, the great depression.

Yes, slower growth than the great depression.

But hey, something is making the market go up, up, stumble, up and once again stumble. And when that something fails, it will fail spectacularly. And then it will get real interesting.

Do You Have A Plan

What has worked before and been true for so long will no longer be true…

Reference official TSP twitter feed

… and the definition of “smart investing” will change forever.

So many investors are convinced the market can only go up now. It’s become a trap. Market tops are a process because the smart investors are trying to slip out the exits without starting a panic. We had a panic in December, but the Federal Reserve stepped in to quell the panic.

But nothing has changed. To get to the point…

Please have a plan before a bear mauls buy & hold

Because if you listen to all the messages that come your way about “sticking with your plan” and “don’t worry about a little dip” every time, then one of these times they will be wrong and they will then send out emails telling you to ride it out at -20% and -30% and maybe -40%.

But not at -50% and -60%. That is when you will hear, “who would have seen that coming” or about the second “one-in-a-hundred-year-crisis” in 12 years.

So ask yourself why are you seeing these messages now. And what would happen if everyone did sell now. Because I think that is the definition of a bear market is everyone selling. And not everyone can get out at the same time.

Start your Plan

Start with our simple primer on the TSP funds and the best TSP allocation plan. It is just a starting point. Because each plan needs a starting point.


TSP & Vanguard Smart Investor





Categories: Perspectives

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