The long view is simply about gaining some perspective as the market whip back and forth in a very extended market topping process. It is about understanding that the markets for all their ups and down have really gone… Read More ›
TSP
Doug Noland: Thesis Update
With global risk markets staging a significant rally, it’s an appropriate time to update my bursting global Bubble thesis. Three weeks ago I titled a CBB “Crisis Management.” My view was that mounting global market instability had reached the point… Read More ›
Market Stress or Market Risk
I talk about market risk quite a bit and try to emphasize market risk is not static. This idea is not supported by mainstream thinking or financial marketing. “Financial Advisors” ask you how much risk you are willing to accept… Read More ›
The Smart Bird: In Case You Missed It
The “In Case You Missed It” series will include some of the more interesting articles and posts related to the financial environment that affects our investments. First a little background. The Smart Bird contends that the financial markets have been… Read More ›
Predictions for 2016-17 (Updated)
Update: It is not looking good for my overall end of 2017 prediction. So far Barron’s average strategist have been correct and they will remain correct until this market resets. While I did not think it likely, two things happened… Read More ›
2015 TSP Returns
And the winner was… the G fund! The lowly no-risk G fund, of course. Now let me add some useless trivia for perspective. The SP500 index gained and lost 181% during the 252 trading days in 2015 using the end-of-day price… Read More ›
Special Fall Timing Report Posted
I have posted a Special Fall Timing Report on our website for members. The market is currently at overhead resistance after a spectacular short-covering rally. I have found some interesting patterns in the stock market this year that I discuss in… Read More ›
The Smart Bird: Bottom Calling
A Smart Bird would never attempt to predict a bottom once the market breaks through all support, but the phrase “never catch a falling knife” comes to mind. What we can do is take a look at the 2011 correction this market’s setup… Read More ›
The Smart Bird: It Should Come As No Surprise
A review leading up to the August correction The market’s deeper correction should have come as no surprise. The warning signs have been flashing danger for some time. Market analysts who are only geniuses during bull markets will reveal themselves… Read More ›
TSP Perspective: Expected Future Returns and Risks
I would like for you (and the friends I hope you share this with) to spend some time resetting your frame of reference for investing in the markets. Many of you have a good feel for the market and can sense the… Read More ›