Expectations have changed, but expectations are not always met. Even if expectations are met, some have rapid feedback loops and some have slow feedback loops. The economic sphere is mostly slow, but sentiment does impact near term business decisions. The… Read More ›
The long view is simply about gaining some perspective as the market whip back and forth in a very extended market topping process. It is about understanding that the markets for all their ups and down have really gone… Read More ›
And the winner was… the G fund! The lowly no-risk G fund, of course. Now let me add some useless trivia for perspective. The SP500 index gained and lost 181% during the 252 trading days in 2015 using the end-of-day price… Read More ›
Full access members, our December 2015 Current Situation Report has been posted. The two year perspective paints a pretty good picture of the TSP equity funds. The chart below shows only the price action of the TSP equity funds without dividends. … Read More ›
Market internals can tell us a lot about the overall health of our equity funds. Healthy rallies are ones where most of the stocks are participating. We also like to see strong volume during the rallies. Volume is the amount… Read More ›
Since the market peaked four months ago on June 23rd, the large cap stocks have outperformed significantly. We see it in the difference between the SP500 index (TSP C fund) and the non-SP500 index (TSP S fund). We even see… Read More ›
The trend in investor risk preferences remained negative throughout the recent market rally indicating negative market outcomes. You know the mood has turned when the markets respond negatively to what during the course of this bull market was considered good… Read More ›
A review leading up to the August correction The market’s deeper correction should have come as no surprise. The warning signs have been flashing danger for some time. Market analysts who are only geniuses during bull markets will reveal themselves… Read More ›
When I take my young sons for a walk, they often run ahead of my wife and I. When they get too far ahead we call and they stop for awhile but as we get close they take off again. Occasionally,… Read More ›
Shortly after the end of the favorable season’s sell signals came in, I started enjoying the summer on the road with my family. I kept checking the market and news, but nothing significant was developing. Without the Fed’s QE it looks like this… Read More ›