In her September 2015 FOMC announcement, Janet Yellen spooked the herd with talk of economic concerns. Past messages about delaying raising interest rates were typically met with market rallies, so she and analyst, including myself, were a bit surprised when… Read More ›
TSP Advice
What Happened?
“What happened” is the question I was asking all day on Wednesday. The market was having a broad-based risk-on rally which appeared to be defying the current tightening monetary policy narrative. While the buy-the-dip crowd was out in force there… Read More ›
Another Market Top
The markets are extremely overbought, volume has lagged significantly on both the NYSE and NASDAQ exchanges during this rally, and all the major indexes are sitting at the level of previous peaks. Bearish sentiment has returned to a low level… Read More ›
TSP Charts: A Look Inside
Market internals can tell us a lot about the overall health of our equity funds. Healthy rallies are ones where most of the stocks are participating. We also like to see strong volume during the rallies. Volume is the amount… Read More ›
TSP Charts: Balancing Act
Since the market peaked four months ago on June 23rd, the large cap stocks have outperformed significantly. We see it in the difference between the SP500 index (TSP C fund) and the non-SP500 index (TSP S fund). We even see… Read More ›
Special Fall Timing Report Posted
I have posted a Special Fall Timing Report on our website for members. The market is currently at overhead resistance after a spectacular short-covering rally. I have found some interesting patterns in the stock market this year that I discuss in… Read More ›
TSP Charts: Retest or Continuation of Decline
The trend in investor risk preferences remained negative throughout the recent market rally indicating negative market outcomes. You know the mood has turned when the markets respond negatively to what during the course of this bull market was considered good… Read More ›
The Smart Bird: It Should Come As No Surprise
A review leading up to the August correction The market’s deeper correction should have come as no surprise. The warning signs have been flashing danger for some time. Market analysts who are only geniuses during bull markets will reveal themselves… Read More ›
Summer Walks and Market Observations
When I take my young sons for a walk, they often run ahead of my wife and I. When they get too far ahead we call and they stop for awhile but as we get close they take off again. Occasionally,… Read More ›
TSP Perspective: Expected Future Returns and Risks
I would like for you (and the friends I hope you share this with) to spend some time resetting your frame of reference for investing in the markets. Many of you have a good feel for the market and can sense the… Read More ›