Recent Posts - page 24

  • Doug Noland: The Precipice

    Global markets have found themselves again at the precipice. My sense is that everyone’s numb – literally dazed and confused from prolonged Monetary Disorder and the resulting perverted market backdrop. Repeatedly, “The Precipice” has signaled easy-money buying and trading opportunities…. Read More ›

  • Doug Noland: The Cult of Draghi

    Friday’s 370-point surge in the DJIA quickly erased memories of the previous day’s rough session throughout global financial markets. It’s worth noting, however, that the euro gave back little of Thursday’s spectacular 3.1% surge, the biggest daily gain versus the… Read More ›

  • TSP Charts: Two Years in Review

    Full access members, our December 2015 Current Situation Report has been posted. The two year perspective paints a pretty good picture of the TSP equity funds.  The chart below shows only the price action of the TSP equity funds without dividends. … Read More ›

  • Are You Following the Herd?

    In her September 2015 FOMC announcement, Janet Yellen spooked the herd with talk of economic concerns.  Past messages about delaying raising interest rates were typically met with market rallies, so she and analyst, including myself, were a bit surprised when… Read More ›

  • The Smart Bird: Forecasting Optimism

    Let’s talk forecast.  I forecast over optimism in forecast.  Over optimism is persistent in forecasts about the economy, earnings, manufacturing and the stock market.  But you don’t have to trust me, the Fed’s own research shows they have Persistent Overoptimism… Read More ›

  • Doug Noland: Monetary Fiasco

    All great monetary fiascos are forged upon a foundation of misperceptions and flawed premises. There’s always an underlying disturbance in money and Credit masked by supposed new understandings, technologies, capabilities and superior financial apparatus. During the nineties “New Paradigm” period,… Read More ›

  • TSP Charts: 19 November 2015

    While the SP500 (TSP C fund) is closing within 1% of its all-time high for the 16th time this year, the non-SP500 (TSP S fund) remains well below its summer peak and is also approaching overhead resistance.  The positive seasonal… Read More ›

  • What Happened?

    “What happened” is the question I was asking all day on Wednesday.  The market was having a broad-based risk-on rally which appeared to be defying the current tightening monetary policy narrative.  While the buy-the-dip crowd was out in force there… Read More ›

  • Doug Noland: Irreversibly Broken and Dysfunctional

    Bloomberg: “The October Jobs Report Gives Fed Officials a Green Light to Raise Rates.” With global “risk on” back in full swing, the focus of U.S. monetary policy belatedly shifts back to fundamentals. October’s 271,000 was the largest jobs gain… Read More ›

  • Another Market Top

    The markets are extremely overbought, volume has lagged significantly on both the NYSE and NASDAQ exchanges during this rally, and all the major indexes are sitting at the level of previous peaks. Bearish sentiment has returned to a low level… Read More ›