Recent Posts - page 25

  • Are You Following the Herd?

    In her September 2015 FOMC announcement, Janet Yellen spooked the herd with talk of economic concerns.  Past messages about delaying raising interest rates were typically met with market rallies, so she and analyst, including myself, were a bit surprised when… Read More ›

  • The Smart Bird: Forecasting Optimism

    Let’s talk forecast.  I forecast over optimism in forecast.  Over optimism is persistent in forecasts about the economy, earnings, manufacturing and the stock market.  But you don’t have to trust me, the Fed’s own research shows they have Persistent Overoptimism… Read More ›

  • Doug Noland: Monetary Fiasco

    All great monetary fiascos are forged upon a foundation of misperceptions and flawed premises. There’s always an underlying disturbance in money and Credit masked by supposed new understandings, technologies, capabilities and superior financial apparatus. During the nineties “New Paradigm” period,… Read More ›

  • TSP Charts: 19 November 2015

    While the SP500 (TSP C fund) is closing within 1% of its all-time high for the 16th time this year, the non-SP500 (TSP S fund) remains well below its summer peak and is also approaching overhead resistance.  The positive seasonal… Read More ›

  • What Happened?

    “What happened” is the question I was asking all day on Wednesday.  The market was having a broad-based risk-on rally which appeared to be defying the current tightening monetary policy narrative.  While the buy-the-dip crowd was out in force there… Read More ›

  • Doug Noland: Irreversibly Broken and Dysfunctional

    Bloomberg: “The October Jobs Report Gives Fed Officials a Green Light to Raise Rates.” With global “risk on” back in full swing, the focus of U.S. monetary policy belatedly shifts back to fundamentals. October’s 271,000 was the largest jobs gain… Read More ›

  • Another Market Top

    The markets are extremely overbought, volume has lagged significantly on both the NYSE and NASDAQ exchanges during this rally, and all the major indexes are sitting at the level of previous peaks. Bearish sentiment has returned to a low level… Read More ›

  • Doug Noland: Developing or Developed?

    October 30 – BloombergView (By Matthew A. Winkler): “Ignore China’s Bears: There’s a bull running right past China bears, and it’s leading the world’s second-largest economy in a transition from resource-based manufacturing to domestic-driven services such as health care, insurance… Read More ›

  • TSP Charts: A Look Inside

    Market internals can tell us a lot about the overall health of our equity funds.  Healthy rallies are ones where most of the stocks are participating.  We also like to see strong volume during the rallies.  Volume is the amount… Read More ›

  • Doug Noland: Hobson’s Choice

    More than two months have passed since the August “flash crash.” Fragilities illuminated during that bout of market turmoil still reverberate. Sure, global markets have rallied back strongly. Bullish news, analysis and sentiment have followed suit, as they do. The… Read More ›