2024 was in so many ways an incredible year. I’ve been at this macro analysis thing for going on four decades. There have been remarkable years: Wildly unstable and speculative markets culminating in 1987’s “Black Monday” stock market crash. 1998, with booming markets narrowly dodging calamity with the Russia and LTCM collapses, was also extraordinary. And, of course, unnerving 2008 was nothing short of phenomenal. But from a Bubble analysis perspective, 2024 is unrivaled.

Fed officials asserting “significantly restrictive” surely realize it’s a weak argument. They want to cut rates, and I’ll assume they’re increasingly uncomfortable with wide international interest-rate differentials.