When wall street analyst start talking about deflation, they are talking about financial asset prices NOT consumer inflation. Sorry wall street, but bubbles have to deflate.
Doug Noland
TSP Smart: Supper Credit Bubble Pay Back Time
The Super Credit Bubble is at the brink.
TSP Smart: Sword of Damocles
I fear the next phase of financial asset repricing will be both disorienting and destabilizing.
TSP Smart: Bear Market Rally Top?
This dynamic has become all too familiar: when instability turns sufficiently serious, markets instinctively anticipate dovish central bank policy responses.
TSP Smart: The Soft Pivot & The Everything Squeeze
And if the recent loosening of financial conditions has been spectacular, just wait until the next de-risking/deleveraging-induced tightening. Let’s call it what it is: Epic Monetary Disorder.
TSP Smart: The Greater Financial Crisis Emerges
Crisis Dynamics are now overwhelming the “Periphery.” Things are “breaking.” “Hot money” is exiting China and EM, spurring a self-reinforcing dollar melt-up speculative dynamic.
TSP Smart: Pondering Modern-Day Runs
Market upheaval has turned systemic. No place is safe. And the Runs have commenced.
Doug Noland: Bursting Bubbles and Failed Experiments
A Bubble: “A self-reinforcing but inevitably unsustainable inflation.” An Experiment: “A test; trial; a tentative procedure or policy; an operation or procedure carried out under controlled conditions in order to discover an unknown effect or law.”
TSP Smart: Time to Join Us
Today, there’s a massive “periphery” loaded with “subprime” junk bonds, leveraged loans, buy-now-pay-later, auto, credit card, housing, and solar securitizations, franchise loans, private Credit, crypto Credit, DeFi, and on and on. The “periphery” has become systemic like never before. And things have started to Break.
TSP Smart: Good News in Bad News
For the last decade, bad economic news sent the stock market higher. Why? It meant more stimulus for the financial economy. As long as the economy was not strong & the stimulus was directed to wall street, life was great. Now the situation is reversed. The strong economy combined with high inflation has the wall street CEOs talking about hurricanes approaching… but they are talking about THEIR economy – the financial economy. Don’t confuse the two.