Excerpts from Doug Noland’s The Perils of Inflationism Proponents proclaim a decade of central bank stimulus has proven a tremendous success. They would point first to stock, bond and asset markets more generally. I view the same markets and see… Read More ›
Doug Noland
Doug Noland: THE Credit Bubble Peak
For those unfamiliar with Doug Noland he uses his accounting background and study of history’s bubbles to chronicle the current global credit bubble. This week he exams the balance sheet of the United States to highlight where we are in… Read More ›
Doug Noland: Framework for Monitoring Financial Stability
Excerpt: I appreciate the Fed’s attention to financial stability, stating explicitly the central role it plays within its broader mandate. Powell’s speech offered a definition of “financial stability:” “A stable financial system is one that continues to function effectively even… Read More ›
Doug Noland: Canary in the Credit Market’s Coal Mine
What ever happened to “Six Sigma”? GE was one of the most beloved and hyped S&P500 stocks during the late-nineties Bubble Era. With “visionary” Jack Welch at the helm, GE was being transformed into a New Age industrial powerhouse –… Read More ›
Doug Noland: Back to Fundamentals
Excerpt: At this point, I seriously doubt the Fed has a solid grasp of the (direct and indirect) sources of the Trillions of global liquidity that have flooded into U.S. securities and asset markets over the past decade. I take… Read More ›
Doug Noland: MBS and the Core
My thesis holds that the global Bubble has been pierced at the “Periphery.” After erupting at the “Periphery,” de-risking, deleveraging and Contagion have been gravitating toward the “Core.” Sinking MBS prices (spiking yields) confirm my view that “Periphery to Core Crisis Dynamics” have now attained important momentum at the “Core.”
Doug Noland: “Whatever They Want” Coming Home to Roost
I see things similarly to the great statesman, the ailing Paul Volcker [respected former Federal Reserve Chairman]: “A hell of a mess in every direction.” The stock market is only a few weeks past all-time highs, yet the finger-pointing has… Read More ›
Doug Noland: Chinese Bubble at Precipice
[Excerpts] When I ponder China’s incredibly bloated banking sector, its historic apartment Bubble, its local government debt issues, massive future national government borrowings – and likely one of the most maladjusted economies ever – I unfortunately don’t see a stable currency… Read More ›
Doug Noland: Rude Awakening Coming
Highlights: Today’s backdrop is altogether different than that of February. For one, back then “money” was flowing readily into the emerging markets – too much of it “hot money.” “Risk on” was still dominant early in the year. Speculative leverage was… Read More ›
Doug Noland: Contemporary Finance’s Defect
It [Contemporary Finance] amounted to the greatest transformation in financial and market structure in history, all backstopped by the “activist” Federal Reserve and global central bankers. It was a New Era – a New Paradigm – that worked miraculously until… Read More ›