Doug Noland

2022 Year in Review

This year’s key dynamic was a momentous shift in inflation dynamics, from years of asset market-centric price inflation to broad-based consumer, commodities and employment pricing pressures. Inflation dynamics are complex. But a confluence of developments conspired to alter the global inflation backdrop.

TSP Smart: The Market is Risk Deaf

While a Federal Reserve Chairman communicating in a balanced way seems appropriate, the problem lies in the fact the financial markets today are not balanced. The Market only hears what it wants to hear and that is that the Fed is about to save it once again.

Doug Noland: Market Thoughts

With about a month to go, markets sense there’s a good shot at a decent year-end rally. And a solid December would be expected to presage a strong start to 2023. But that would not change my “countertrend” rally view. This market recovery, especially if it gets legs, is problematic.

Doug Noland: SBF, FTX and QE

As fate would have it, the Federal Reserve would restart QE a few months after FTX began operations. The cryptocurrency Bubble was then bestowed with the greatest windfall in the long history of manias and speculative excess: Covid-19.