Credit is not innately good or bad. Simplistically, productive Credit is constructive, while non-productive Credit is inevitably problematic. This crucial distinction tends to be masked throughout the boom period. Worse yet, a prolonged boom in “productive” Credit – surely fueled… Read More ›
TSP Risks
Market Stress or Market Risk
I talk about market risk quite a bit and try to emphasize market risk is not static. This idea is not supported by mainstream thinking or financial marketing. “Financial Advisors” ask you how much risk you are willing to accept… Read More ›
TSP Perspective: Expected Future Returns and Risks
I would like for you (and the friends I hope you share this with) to spend some time resetting your frame of reference for investing in the markets. Many of you have a good feel for the market and can sense the… Read More ›
TSP Charts: Summer Doldrums
Shortly after the end of the favorable season’s sell signals came in, I started enjoying the summer on the road with my family. I kept checking the market and news, but nothing significant was developing. Without the Fed’s QE it looks like this… Read More ›
TSP Charts: Trouble in Shanghai
Most of the losses in the stock market on Friday occurred in the first 15 minutes. The financial media are attributing it to renewed fears of Greece exiting the Euro and China clamping down on margin lending. While Greece adds… Read More ›
TSP Charts: Quicklook
The first chart compares the performance of the three equity funds since the March 2014 peak. The TSP C fund’s rise has been steady, but recently it has lost momentum. The TSP S fund traded sideways for an extended period… Read More ›
TSP Perspectives: The Only Game in Town
You may have noticed the Central Banker’s policies and the market’s expectations of those policies appear to be the only game in town for the markets these days. I have no doubt that the market would have corrected more deeply… Read More ›
TSP News: Big tail, little dog
Do fundamentals matter? Yes, but not how you may think nor how it is taught in economics and finance. When the good jobs report came out the stock market took a dive, but when other economic indicators followed that showed weakness in… Read More ›
TSP News: Changing Expectations and Uncertainty
This week provided some good insight into the markets and what happens when market’s expectation shift. A quick look at the relative performance of the five TSP funds shows the equity funds all performing relatively the same. But we need to take a deeper look at… Read More ›