Full access members, our December 2015 Current Situation Report has been posted. The two year perspective paints a pretty good picture of the TSP equity funds. The chart below shows only the price action of the TSP equity funds without dividends. … Read More ›
Thrift Savings Plan
Are You Following the Herd?
In her September 2015 FOMC announcement, Janet Yellen spooked the herd with talk of economic concerns. Past messages about delaying raising interest rates were typically met with market rallies, so she and analyst, including myself, were a bit surprised when… Read More ›
The Smart Bird: Forecasting Optimism
Let’s talk forecast. I forecast over optimism in forecast. Over optimism is persistent in forecasts about the economy, earnings, manufacturing and the stock market. But you don’t have to trust me, the Fed’s own research shows they have Persistent Overoptimism… Read More ›