The Smart Bird

The Early Bird for Investors — Provides a summary of the best commentary and pertinent news

Lifecycle Funds

The Lifecycle funds of TSP and Vanguard provide a good baseline for investors on how to allocate their accounts based on their age or years to retirement. We just finished updating our look at the current allocations of TSP and Vanguard Lifecycle funds.

Into Thin Air

The Highest Peak In the chart below, Dr. Hussman plotted five very different measures of valuation for the SP500 that all are highly correlated to predicting future long term returns. Market valuations are not useful for short term market timing,… Read More ›

Warren Buffett’s Bet

The Bet In 2008, Warren Buffett issued a challenge to the hedge fund industry, which in his view charged exorbitant fees that the funds’ performances couldn’t justify. Mr. Buffett contended that, including expenses, a passive strategy invested the low-fee Vanguard S&P… Read More ›

Corporate Profits versus Corporate Profits

Real profits are down 2.7% from last quarter.  A tad bit lower than the 15% growth reported in the media.  But don’t worry, the media will maintain the positive narrative since they only care about non-GAAP profits spoon fed to them by the price-seeking corporations themselves and wall street analyst who make up “future” earnings ratios and happy narratives.

Investing in the I Fund

The MSCI EAFE index invests in the developed world’s stock market minus the US and Canada. Many popular international funds such as the TSP I fund and IEFA ETF track this index.  It holds approximately 85% of the developed world’s… Read More ›