In her September 2015 FOMC announcement, Janet Yellen spooked the herd with talk of economic concerns. Past messages about delaying raising interest rates were typically met with market rallies, so she and analyst, including myself, were a bit surprised when… Read More ›
The Smart Bird
The Early Bird for Investors — Provides a summary of the best commentary and pertinent news
The Smart Bird: Forecasting Optimism
Let’s talk forecast. I forecast over optimism in forecast. Over optimism is persistent in forecasts about the economy, earnings, manufacturing and the stock market. But you don’t have to trust me, the Fed’s own research shows they have Persistent Overoptimism… Read More ›
TSP Charts: Retest or Continuation of Decline
The trend in investor risk preferences remained negative throughout the recent market rally indicating negative market outcomes. You know the mood has turned when the markets respond negatively to what during the course of this bull market was considered good… Read More ›