I just read that Wall Street is getting their wish and the administration is signing a law allowing them to market their hedge funds to retirement plans. My view is hedge funds need exist money – a really big sucker, and you are it. These opaque investments charge high fees and have hid their leverage well.
I looked hard at the TSP Mutual Fund window. My conclusion was the fees were a waste it all you are doing is buying more of the same that you get in the 5 TSP funds. I feared that some would add more Tech when the SP500 is already dominated by Tech.
I found one true alternative. Incredibly underweight and forgotten. But there was a reason for that. But things started to change and I reluctantly starting talking about it a couple of years ago. Why reluctantly? Because I assume people did not want to hear about it. And no one liked the MF window for good reason.
I started pushing a MF over a year ago and some dabbled in it. One fellow said he bought it and dumped it in December when it went down and he was sorry he did that. I’ve always said it would VERY volatile in the short term. It is.
I was not making this call for technical reasons, or because of short term reasons. I was making it for Macro reasons. A new global monetary system is emerging and the buyers are huge – global central banks. And the world is over flowing in debt everywhere. Why would gold not come back. It is and I think it has a ways to go.
There is so much more to it than a chart. But gold has been moving opposite of stocks with every rally and decline. Then they both started moving higher but gold moved opposite of dips. It’s negatively correlated.
Since the SP500 valuation is in the top 1% of historical levels, it seems there is a lot of downside potential and less and less upside potential. It is a time to hedge those valuations if nothing else.
I’m a TSP fund analyst, not a gold bug. I am a Macro commentator, not a speculative technical analyst jumping in and out. You can go technical or seasonal, but it is also nice to understand the macro (strategic) investing environment. BTW, I offer trading day seasonal almanacs on my site (not calendar day).
In Bull markets you can sail, but in Bear markets you have to row. Get the oars out.
I’m not Wall Street. I am not trying to sell you any investments. I’m on your side. Let me explain what is happening on another level. Join us.
Invest Smart,
Michael Bond