Author Archives

  • Doug Noland: The Loss of Moneyness

    We recommended existing equities on 26 January & told the last holdouts to move from the TSP F fund (bond funds) to the TSP G fund (or the safest funds) by 9 March which happened to be a top for the bond funds.

    What did your adviser tell you?

  • Doug Noland: The Modern-Day Bank Run

    And if there is any confusion about the title. It does not represent people lining up at their banks. It represents wall street banks, hedge funds, and corporations lining up at the Federal Reserve’s Emergency Lending Window looking for handouts to pay their bills and bonuses. We the people should be so lucky.

  • TSP Funds: Financial Crisis II

    Last week JP Morgan announced they were borrowing from the Federal Reserve’s Emergency Lending Window to “break the stigma”. Here we go again.

  • Doug Noland: The First Major Pandemic Scare


    The entire world inflated into the proverbial Bubble in Search of a Pin. At the epicenter of the global Bubble, trouble in China has been headlining my list of potential catalysts. The coronavirus outbreak poses a clear and present danger of pushing China into a dangerous predicament.

  • Doug Noland: Issues 2020

    TSP & Vanguard Smart Investor’s guest writer Doug Noland writes on Issues for 2020

  • Doug Noland: Crazy Extremis

    … was the Great Depression chiefly the consequence of post-crash policy mistakes, as conventional thinking has come to profess? Or did the previous “Roaring Twenties” Bubble sow the seeds of a major down-cycle and collapse?

  • Doug Noland: Weak Link

    We won’t know all the crazy leverage and derivative strategies spawned during this period until the next big de-risking/deleveraging period

  • Doug Noland: Music to the Market

    From a conventional “financial stability” standpoint, this Credit cycle may appear virtually pristine. Yet Credit Bubbles survive only with unrelenting debt growth. Today’s mirage of “financial stability” depends on ongoing massive federal deficits coupled with aggressive monetary stimulus.

  • Doug Noland: China Watch

    First time all four developed countries have been negative year-over-year since last two global recessions.

  • Doug Noland: What the Heck is Happening in the Cayman Islands?

    It was no coincidence that U.S. “repo” market tumult followed on the heels of an abrupt reversal in global bond yields. I appreciate how the enormous global buildup in leveraged speculation works miraculously so long as bond yields are declining (bond prices rising). If only bond yields could fall forever – even as debt and deficits expand uncontrollably. It’s not clear to me how the global system doesn’t turn increasingly unstable, which I believe explains why the ECB and now the Fed have resorted again to QE.