Smart Bird: Not a Scientist but…

I’m not a scientist and I don’t play one on TV, but occasionally numbers speak to me.

This week they are screaming…

I posted this over a week ago pointing out that if the US followed the EU’s path we would pass 3000 deaths per day from COVID in 30 days. At the time the chart was made, the EU was hitting 280K cases per day with deaths hitting 3,500 per day.

The yellow lines show where the US was at the time with cases turning up sharply, but deaths which everyone likes to point out were still “only” 1000 per day. Well, I added 20 November’s data to the Europe’s blue lines in red today…

Reported new cases came in at 187,000 today and new deaths tagged 2,000 and these are shown in bright red. Since the data does not come in smoothly, I took the week’s data and divided by 7 to come up with the small dark red triangles. If the actual trend is moving somewhere between the averaged and the Friday data then we are moving up the EU plots.

Which means 250,000 new daily cases in one week or so. And deaths could jump to over 2,500 per day.

Europe is trying to lockdown again with a lot of push back this time. But because of the recognition of their problem and actions, their new cases are stalling. But the deaths lag and continue to rise. Meaning even if Americans were to take this seriously today, the US daily death rate will STILL probably exceed 3,000 daily in weeks.

The real issue today is hospital capacity which includes beds, ICUs and nurses. It is going to be a long hard winter for doctors and nurses.


Invest in yourself and family this winter and be careful.



Categories: Perspectives